Thursday, July 24, 2025
Pre-market futures right now are split, but weakening. Understandable, as we have seen record high closes on the S&P 500 so far this year in double digits, mostly in just the past couple weeks. Profit-taking wouldn’t be the craziest idea anyone had from current levels, and considering the morning’s data remains strong, we don’t see anything else pushing market futures down.
Only the tech-heavy (AI-trade-heavy) Nasdaq is in the green at this hour, +42 points, +0.18%. This itself is off early-morning highs near +0.4%. Otherwise, the Dow — led downward by UnitedHealth UNH, which announced it is under a Department of Justice probe — is -300 points currently, -0.67%, while the S&P 500 is flat as a pancake: -0.004%. The small-cap Russell 2000, which has led market indexes for much of this near-term rally, is -9 points, -0.42%.
Weekly Jobless Claims continue to defy concerns about a weakening jobs market. Initial Jobless Claims this morning came in at 217K, the lowest in 14 weeks and the 6th straight week of lower near-term claims. In early June, we were at 250K new jobless claims, looking to reach higher. There are no news headlines associated with this development; likely companies are waiting to see how their business environments unfold before deciding what to do with their workforces.
Continuing Claims, reported a week in arrears from new claims, are also captured within a better-than-expected situation: 1.955 million is above the downwardly revised 1.951 million from the previous week, but have stalled out just shy of 2 million longer-term jobless claims, which would change the narrative on whether or not we have a healthy labor market. This amounts to seven straight weeks above 1.94 million, after we had climbed from 1.83 million in mid-April to 1.91 a month later.
American Airlines AAL posted a solid earnings beat in its Q2 report this morning: 95 cents versus expectations for 79 cents — a +20.25% positive earnings surprise. Revenues also outperformed expectations, albeit less impressively: by +0.73% to +$14.39 billion for the quarter. Yet warnings of softer demand leading to a Q3 loss are sending shares down -6% on the news, compounding the -27% loss year to date at the airline major. For more on AAL’s earnings, click here.
Honeywell HON also outpaced expectations on its bottom line, by +4.2% to $2.75 per share, and notably above the $2.49 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Revenues o $10.35 billion surpassed the Zacks consensus by +3.33%, though shares are trading down -2.7% in the pre-market, as the company prepares to break into three pieces: Aerospace, Automation and Advanced Materials, to be actualized in the second half of 2026. For more on HON’s earnings, click here.
Union Pacific UNP also reported better-than-expected numbers ahead of the opening bell, with earnings of $3.03 per share easily bettering the $2.89 anticipated, for a +4.84% earnings surprise. Revenues of $6.2 billion improved over the $6.11 billion forecast. The railroad major confirmed its efforts to merge with Norfolk Southern (NSC). Shares are -3% ahead of the opening bell.
