00:00 Julie
So September ended well, what do we tend to see in Octobers?
00:04 Jeffrey
Well, I mean, you talk about the October effect, we called it October phobia. The fear of crashes uh and and big sell-offs and massacres that we've had in October, but really, way going way back to even the 1969 Almanac that my father put out, my late father put out. October's a bargain month. It's the best time to buy stocks, it's a bear killer, best time to buy stocks, especially small caps and large caps, and we see a general turnaround, um, sometime in the month depending upon what happens.
00:30 Jeffrey
Coming into this year with the market being up for the nine months and hitting eight new all-time highs. Maybe it was even at nine if if no yes yesterday we didn't have one. Um, in September, bearish September is bullish.
00:41 Jeffrey
When bearish seasonality doesn't happen, that's a bullish indication. We've seen one loss in 1967 in those years when we had all those new highs in September. We've got a worst six-month period, you know, the sell and may period that was also up at the second best worst six months ever.
00:54 Jeffrey
Uh we've seen no losses in the fourth quarter, year end gains, you know, fourth quarter gains in the 6-7% range, year year total gains over 20%. So we're looking at a potential for a monster rally, S&P 7100 and another 20% year for the S&P.
01:05 Julie
Wow, 7100 here. W what is, what could be the fly in the ointment? Is there anything that could change this outlook?
01:13 Jeffrey
Well, there's always exogenous events, something in the Middle East, in Russia, in China, some systemic issue, but um, you know, the jobs number, people are concerned about that and yes, you know, employment is an issue, but a lot of it may be impacted by the lack of immigration and the things that are going on with with, you know, that that end of it. And, you know, all the data that's out there. We did I did a whole chapter in my book Super Boom that I put out about inflation data being manipulated and or at least adjusted and there's all these economists doing things.
01:40 Jeffrey
If you just look at some of the, you know, unadulterated data like jobless claims, I think you can get a good picture of where we're at. The economy robust, um and if you want to find out about inflation, just, you know, step outside, go to the store, see what things are happening. There's inflation out there.
01:52 Jeffrey
We all know that. There's shrinkflation, there's inflation. So, the government shutdown with everybody worried about not getting their data, I think it's less of an event and and more just something that's going to give us a nice little buying opportunity here in October and set up that, you know, textbook October buy.
02:05 Julie
All right, 7100. You heard it here first, folks. Jeffrey, thank you. It's good to see you.
02:11 Jeffrey
Thanks, Julie. Good to see you, too.
