Is This the Breakout That Finally Sparks a Run to $1?

Stellar (XLM) has made its fourth attempt since June to break the $0.45 resistance, though it now trades at $0.36 after repeated rejections. Analysts note that such repeated tests often signal “resistance fatigue,” suggesting sellers may be running out of steam.

This attempt comes at a time when Stellar’s fundamentals are strengthening. The much-anticipated Protocol 23 upgrade and growing adoption of real-world assets (RWA), now valued at more than $460 million, are providing a strong narrative for a potential breakout.

Why $0.45 Could Define Stellar’s Next Move

Despite optimism around Stellar (XLM), it remains one of the biggest losers among the top 20 cryptocurrencies, sliding about 9% over the past week to trade near $0.36. Analysts note that a decisive close above $0.40 with strong volume could open the door for XLM to challenge the $0.45 resistance.

Beyond that, analysts see $0.64 as the next significant hurdle. However, failure to push through resistance could trigger a pullback toward $0.32, where buyers have previously stepped in to defend support.

XLM's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: XLMUSD on Tradingview

Technical indicators show mixed signals. On one side, XLM recently flashed a death cross on shorter timeframes, suggesting near-term downside risk. On the other, oversold conditions and seasonal September strength, historically averaging a 3% monthly gain, hint at potential recovery.

Could XLM Finally Run Toward $1?

The long-term outlook remains bullish. Protocol 23 is expected to deliver faster and more scalable transactions, while ISO 20022 adoption strengthens Stellar’s role in institutional cross-border payments. Together, these catalysts build a credible case for a sustained rally.

Market observers argue that a clean break above $0.45 could mark the start of a broader trend, with $1 no longer looking like a distant dream. Traders are closely monitoring $0.32–$0.34 support zones for accumulation opportunities, while keeping an eye on $0.44 and $0.47 as the next upside targets.

With momentum building and fundamentals aligning, XLM’s latest attempt at $0.45 could be the breakout that finally sparks its long-awaited rally toward $1.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XLMUSD chart from Tradingview