Investors of all stripes have been thrown a few curveballs this year as President Donald Trump's trade war in early April sent stock prices and the dollar tumbling, and set of talk of “Sell America” as some feared the U.S. would lose its spot as the world's preeminent market. Subsequent weeks, though, have brougth a rebound in equity markets as the implementation of the steepest tariffs has been delayed. As a result of the ups and downs, many of the wealthiest investors around the world are taking a wait-and-see approach with their investment strategy.
That's according to the newly-released UBS 2025 Global Family Office Report, which reflects the views of 317 family offices—the personalized wealth management firms of the super-rich—managing an average of $1.1 billion each.
The family offices that took part in the survey pointed to a global trade war as the risk that worries them the most over the next 12 months, while naming general geopolitical conflict as their top concern for the next five years.
UBS's survey was mostly conducted during the first quarter of the year, before the president's tariff policies were announced in early April. Still, the company was able to carry out more interviews following the market turmoil, and found most wealthy investors were planning to stick with their plans and wait out the ensuing economic uncertainty, even as markets tanked and recession warnings increased.
A month and a half on from the president's announcement, U.S. equities have recovered from their initial steep declines, even going positive for the year, showing the wisdom of a buy-and-hold approach.
In 2025, some of the biggest investment changes from previous years include family offices further reducing their cash holdings and investing even more in developed market equities, particularly in the U.S., according to the report. Private debt was another area that saw an increase in investments, while private equity investments actually fell.
Even with all of the uncertainty related to the Trump administration's economic policies, family offices across the globe are “maintaining a very strong bias to the U.S.,” says Daniel Scansaroli, managing director and head of portfolio strategy at UBS. American innovations like generative AI and pharmaceutical advancements keep the firms bullish.
“I think it's too early to believe that U.S. exceptionalism has ended but there’s lots of uncertainty and so we're sticking to our long-term strategic asset allocation while making tactical changes,” an unnamed Chilean family office executive is quoted saying in the report.
Alternative asset allocation
The asset allocation split between traditional and alternative investments for family offices is split at 56% for the former and 44% for the latter. But American family offices have far more appetite than international firms for alternatives, with the allocations essentially reversed.
While investments in private equity have been steadily increasing year over year in the family office world for a while, in 2024 the total average allocation actually decreased, to 21% from 2023's peak of 22%. UBS expects that to continue this year: family offices that plan to change up their strategy this year plan to cut their private equity allocation to 18%.
Scansaroli credits that decline to the nearly dormant mergers and acquisitions and IPO environments in recent years. Families don't have the cash from exits “to recycle into the next private equity deal.” Still, 44% of families said they plan to increase PE investments over the next five years.
While gold represents just 2% of the average asset allocation, Scansaroli also expects that to increase this year.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
