US stock futures held as traders awaited the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, which is widely expected to to feature the first interest rate cut of 2025.
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Futures attached to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), the benchmark S&P 500 (ES=F), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) all hovered around the baseline.
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Wall Street is confident the Fed will announce a rate cut on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. Analysts expect a slowdown in the labor market to convince policymakers to reduce rates, despite an uptick in inflation. Traders are pricing in a 96% chance of a 25 basis-point cut and a 4% chance of a jumbo reduction.
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While a rate cut is seen as practically a done deal, the trajectory of interest rates going forward is less certain. Consequently, investors will also be watching for the release of the Fed's “dot-plot,” which will offer insight into how many cuts the central bank anticipates for the rest of 2025.
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Wall Street will also be eager to hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at a press conference following the decision, which begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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The Fed's next move comes amid growing concerns over the central bank's independence. While President Trump has lambasted Powell, he has also started to exert more direct influence over the Fed's ranks.
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The Senate confirmed Trump's nominee to the Federal Reserve Board in a tight vote on Monday evening, allowing Stephen Miran to vote this week. Before being confirmed, Miran said that he will not resign from his role as a White House advisor during his time at the Fed and instead will take a leave of absence so that he can return to the job later.
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At the same time, an appeals court on Monday rejected Trump's attempt to oust Fed governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. Cook thus remains on the board and will partake in policy decisions as court proceedings unfold.
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On Tuesday, stocks slipped with Fed policy top of mind for investors. Otherwise, fresh retail sales data came in stronger than expected, though retailers say consumer habits are shifting nonetheless.
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On Wednesday, in addition to the Fed decision, investors will receive new data on housing starts as well as earnings from General Mills (GIS) and Cracker Barrel (CBRL). Cracker Barrel made headlines earlier this month following controversy over its now-abandoned logo change.
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Looking ahead to the end of the week, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to speak about trade and TikTok on Friday.
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