Most years fade into the background as soon as a new one starts. Not 2025: a year of epochal shifts, in which the macroeconomy was the dog that did not bark. What to expect in 2026? The shocks of 2025 will not be undone, but neither will they be repeated. Instead, their effects will work their way through the system, in ways that are unlikely to be linear and smooth. In the baseline scenario, the macroeconomy will remain a dog that does not bark, either out of alarm or joy. However, there are a few potential path changers to look out for. Chances are, then, that 2026 will not feel any smoother on a day-to-day basis than its predecessor. However, that will not mean good outcomes cannot be reached for those who keep their heads.
