Tesla just got its biggest break yet in the robotaxi wars with a key permit

Every so often, Tesla (TSLA) makes a headline-grabbing move that seems more like a turning point hiding in plain sight.

No flashy event, just a subtle permit that could potentially become the foundation for something much bigger in the robotaxi race.

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And while the EV giant has massive long-term ambitions, this one could open up a path to a business that might rewrite the rules of an entire sector.

In the robotaxi space, where a first-mover advantage can make or break the competition, this step could be massive as Tesla moves from talking about the future to building it.

Tesla’s latest milestone moves its Robotaxi program toward real-world deployment.

Image source: Gomes/Getty Images

Tesla’s Austin Robotaxi push heats up amid global AV race

Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions began in Texas back in late June, when it launched a paid, invitation-only pilot in Austin.

The early program was operated within a tight geofenced zone, with the first users reporting long waits and limited coverage.

However, since then, Tesla has expanded quickly, and as per its Phase 3 rollout, it has reportedly doubled the geofence, testing and refining its Full Self-Driving (FSD) v12 software in live service.

Still, the road’s been anything but smooth, led by multiple lawsuits and regulators keeping a close eye on matters.

Also, reporting suggests that Tesla has shelved its in-house Dojo AI training project, opting for external computing resources.

Competition is fierce, too.

Google’s Waymo remains the U.S. leader, operating its driverless fleet across roughly 250 square miles in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Also, Phoenix is still active, and with Dallas now coming online through a partnership with Avis, Waymo is set to go beyond its recent feats (completing a million rides recently).

Uber is taking a much different route, working as an aggregator instead of building its own autonomous vehicle.

It’s already integrating Waymo rides in Austin and Atlanta, and inked a massive, multi-year deal with Lucid and Nuro to deploy over 20,000 autonomous Lucid Gravity SUVs over six years.

Lucid’s Gravity-based robotaxi, equipped with Nuro Driver, recently began closed-circuit autonomous testing and is eyeing launch in the first city via Uber’s platform.

The AV race is also heating up overseas. Baidu’s Apollo Go is running a fully driverless service in 10+ Chinese cities, while Pony.ai secured permits for paid rides in Shanghai.

Similarly, upstarts like DiDi and WeRide are preparing for major expansions into newer global markets.

Why the robotaxi market could redefine Tesla’s future

Though forecasts differ, analysts agree that the robotaxi industry is set for explosive expansion over the next few years.

Goldman Sachs projects that the global robotaxi rideshare market could potentially grow by an estimated 90% compound annual growth rate through 2030.

In China alone, Goldman expects the market to hit close to $12 billion by 2030 and $47 billion by 2035. That effectively translates to 500,000 vehicles in service by 2030 and 2.3 million by 2035.

Grand View Research offers a similar view, estimating the global market to grow from $1.95 billion in 2024 to a whopping $43.7 billion by 2030, a CAGR of about 73.5%.

Early traction suggests that demand is likely to come to fruition, especially with Waymo already delivering millions of rides, and by late 2024, it was handling roughly 100,000 rides a week across its service areas.

For Tesla, the stakes are even higher.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest argues that without a viable robotaxi business, Tesla’s long-term valuation will be significantly lower.

Elon Musk has repeatedly cited autonomy as Tesla’s defining product roadmap.

If Tesla can match or exceed Waymo’s operational scale while clearing regulatory and safety bottlenecks, the payoff could be transformative.

Tesla secures Texas green light for Robotaxi rollout

Tesla just checked off a major box in its push to dominate the robotaxi space.

The EV behemoth just secured a critical rideshare license in Texas, which clears the way for its Robotaxi service to operate in the state.

The breakthrough puts Elon Musk’s company in the same regulatory category as Uber and Lyft, but without the human driver.

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Also, the timing effectively lines up with a shift in the state’s law.

Starting September 1, Texas will need autonomous rideshare services to meet the same regulatory standards as traditional ones.

That includes mandatory cameras, insurance coverage, and adhering to traffic laws, which adds another layer of accountability to the whole operation.

The license builds on Tesla’s recent Robotaxi pilot in Austin.

With Texas in the bag, Tesla is looking at Nevada, Arizona, California, and Florida next. These states have been a lot more open to the daunting autonomous driving technology.

Tesla’s regulatory woes are far from settled, but the Texas license marks a major step toward its CEO’s vision for a driverless future.