Walmart's (WMT) stock still looks like a good bet despite the retailer being smack in the middle of the Trump trade war.
Or so reasons JPMorgan, which put the retailer on its list of best summer ideas on Monday.
The retailer is the biggest “port in the storm” consumer stock right now, JPMorgan analyst Chris Horvers said, pointing to the company's extensive food business (70% of the business) and market share gainer status in challenging economic times.
“Long-term story keeps buyers engaged,” Horvers said.
The analyst sees Walmart shares climbing 33% over the next 18 months to $130. Horvers' price target is among the most aggressive on Wall Street, according to Yahoo Finance data. The Street's average price target on Walmart is $108.
Shares of Walmart have cooled off from their sizzling 2024 run as 2025 moves along. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500's rebound from the “Liberation Day” lows — it has advanced 1.3% in the past month versus a 5.5% gain for the benchmark index.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
The relative underperformance of Walmart's stock comes on the heels of a mixed first quarter earnings report in mid-May and lackluster earnings from retail more broadly.
First quarter sales rose 2.5% from the prior year to $165.6 billion, falling short of Wall Street estimates for $166.02 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share increased 1.7% year over year to $0.61, beating estimates of $0.58. US same-store sales also beat expectations with a 4.5% increase, led by health and wellness, and groceries.
But the company did see transaction growth at its Walmart US stores weaken in the quarter, compared with trends last year.
And while Walmart reiterated its full-year earnings per share outlook of $2.50 to $2.61, it was mostly below analyst estimates of $2.61. This is despite the retailer beating earnings estimates by $0.03 for the first quarter.
Retailers ranging from Gap (GAP) to Macy's (M) to Best Buy (BBY) within the past week have moved to warn about the profit from the Trump administration's tariffs. The market has wasted no time penalizing the sector.
With retail earnings season just about over, investors will likely look for clues on how the economy is handling tariffs ahead of the key back-to-school shopping season in July.
Recent economic trends have also been mixed.
On the one hand, the second of two readings of the Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose to 52.2 from 50.8 in early May, matching the sentiment level in April. The index is still down 25% from a year ago.
