Key takeaways:
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Fed interest-rate cut odds for today are now 100%.
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BTC price may rise to all-time highs if key resistance level at $118,000 is broken.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to a four-week high above $117,000 on Wednesday, as traders expect price swings before and after the US policy decision on interest rate cuts.
100% chance of interest rate cuts
There is a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut at the Wednesday FOMC meeting, with a 4% probability of the rates being reduced by 50 bps, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Polymarket bettors have also locked in a 25 bps decrease at 93% for the FOMC meeting, with odds for a 50 bps reduction at 5%.
Related: Bitcoin stuck at $116K resistance until ‘decisively reclaimed,’ says Bitfinex
Odds from both the CME FedWatch and Polymarket are building for a three-cut path toward the end of the year.
Still, some market commentators say that any volatile price action from interest rate cuts is already priced in.
Traders have now turned their focus to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the FOMC meeting. Powell, who has been under pressure from President Donald Trump to lower interest rates, previously hinted at interest cuts, saying the prevailing inflation and the labor market situation warranted adjustments.
Therefore, the market will keenly watch Powell’s language at the FOMC news conference to see if there is any shift in tone.
“Markets are locked on the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps cut priced in,” said private wealth manager Swissblock in a Tuesday post on X, adding that traders will be focusing on “Powell’s stance under the spotlight for hints.”
Swissblock managers also pointed out that either way, volatility is guaranteed, adding:
“Bitcoin’s Risk Index will guide whether BTC’s bullish structure holds or if a sell-off looms on the horizon.”
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC said that BTC price could first rise to $118,000 on Wednesday before retracing after the FOMC decision is confirmed.
Where to next for BTC price?
Bitcoin must flip resistance at $118,000 into support to continue its uptrend toward all-time highs and eventually into price discovery.
“Bitcoin keeps slowly grinding higher, now pushing into the 116.5K-118K resistance area,” said crypto analyst Jelle in an X post on Wednesday, adding:
“Break 118K and hold above it, and new all-time highs are next.”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC price “attacking” the resistance between $117,500 and $118,500, which is a great sign, according to MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.
“Quite usually it's just a run before a drop.”
#Bitcoin attacking the range resistance pre-FOMC could be a great sign.
Quite usually it's just a run before a drop.
We'll see.
It's going to be fun! pic.twitter.com/27GySz5j7g
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) September 17, 2025
Van de Poppe’s analysis suggested that if resistance around $118,000 is taken out, it could trigger a run-up move toward the $120,000 and later to the all-time highs at $124,500.
On the downside, a key area of interest lies between $116,800 and $114,500, a range the price has held between Sept. 10 and Tuesday.
Below that, the next move would be a retest of the $112,000 psychological level, which is also the 100-day simple moving average.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
