Trust us: This week's jobs report is a really big deal

What we're going to do today is outline the steps that the lead to the most important economic report of the month in the United States: the jobs report.

In this case, the jobs report for August.

From Tuesday through Thursday, the government and private organizations will issue a string of reports that will slowly circle around the Labor Department report, due at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.

The report has a huge stakes for many people, including President Trump, who fired the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the July report, delivered to the White House the night before its release, was not nearly as bullish as he wanted.

Workers are obviously concerned because job growth appears to be slowing, and there's evidence big corporations are announcing large layoffs.

Businesses are concerned. Some like Meta Platforms (META) , Microsoft (MSFT) and Estee Lauder (EL) have to be careful when they lay off staff.

Or companies want to replace staff, where possible, and are keenly interested in the work force supply, especially with deportations of illegal workers increasing.

So, here's how the week will work:

Tuesday — two key reports on the manufacturing

These are the Standard & Poor's and Institute for Supply Management purchasing managers reports August. These tell you if employers are hiring or trimming staff. Above 50% means they're probafbly expanding. Lately, the reports have suggested manufacturers are cutting back. There's also a report on construction spending, but it is not as immediate.

Wednesday — Reports on job openings and job cuts, factory orders

The first, often called the JOLTS report. It looks at openings, hires, separations and turnover. The source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the latter from the Commerce Department. The July report showed a slight increase in openings but a slight decrease in hires. The trend will tell the story. If the JOLTS report is negative, be forewarned.

The factory orders report. This estimates if orders are increasing, which would be good for all the players in the supply chain.

One more report to note: The Beige Book Report, a narrative look at the economy based on interviews conducted by staff at all of the Federal Reserve Banks.

Also: Fed speeches. By Alberto Musalem of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank may offer a glimpse about Fed thinking ahead of the big Sept. 16-17 meeting.

Thursday: Three reports on the current jobs situation

The ADP Employment report. From the payroll processor ADP. Due at 8:15 a.m. EDT. This is a snapshot of private sector employment conditions.

The BLS Initial Jobless Claims report. Due at 8:30 a.m. EDT. This collects data on the latest unemployment insurance claim filings and how many people are looking for jobs.

Kellen Contee, a welder at Marlin Steel Wire in West Baltimore, works on a steel basket for automotive uses.

Baltimore Sun/Getty Images

Monthly report on announced layoffs. Due in late morning. From the outplacement firm of Challenger Gray and Christmas. This report calls out if the conditions are changing — layoffs are growing, shrinking or not changing. So far this year, the report has reported growing numbers of job losses from layoffs, bankruptcies or business restructurings.

Purchasing managers report on services. Again, from Standard & Poor's and the Institute for Supply Management. Both reports have shown the services sector of the economy is stronger than manufacturing.

Fed speeches: Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank and John Williams of the New York Fed.

Fed governor candidate hearing. Stephen Miran, now chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, appears for a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. He would replace Adriana Kugler, who resigned In August to join the faculty at Georgetown University.

More Wall Street Analysts:

Friday — the Jobs report finally arrives

The report comes out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Copies are sent to the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and the White House the night before.

The July report showed an unemployment rate of 4.2% and 73,000 jobs created. It also revised lower substantially the estimates for new jobs created in May and June.

That caused the president to erupt, accuse Bureau of Labor Statistics of cooking the data to make him look bad, and finally fire the BLS commissioner.

A quick note: The problem with the data is that, since the Covid-19 pandemic, it's become ever harder to collect the data. BLS Staff have been cut, and businesses don't respond quickly to surveys. Knowing this, the BLS and all government agencies revise the report report for each of the following two months and again in the next calendar year. As a result, it can take up to three months for the numbers to be locked in. (Similar issues affect other indexes, including the Consumer Price Index.)

The jobs report has four key pieces: