The market's task of planning for how tariff developments will play out this summer got more complicated Friday as President Trump and his team offered a host of options as for what to expect in the months ahead.
First Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised eyebrows when he suggested that his focus could be on an end of summer deadline, saying “I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day.”
But any hopes for a summer lull between now and then were short-lived when, just a few hours later, Trump offered multiple other scenarios during a wide-ranging press conference.
At one point the president reiterated his plan to send letters to dictate tariff rates for at least some countries — perhaps as soon as in the next week — saying “it's going to go very quickly.”
Then minutes later he said that a July 9 deadline to raise “reciprocal” tariffs is not set and perhaps could move — but in an unpredictable direction.
“We can do whatever we want,” he told reporters of that deadline. “We could extend it, we could make it shorter,” adding his preference was to make it shorter.
Trump then capped things off with a social media post in the early afternoon announcing he was “terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately” over digital taxes.
“We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period,” he added.
It all comes as the administration faces a series of deadlines in the weeks ahead from that July 9 date to strike “reciprocal” trade deals to an early August deadline for progress with China, and Bessent's new end of summer deadline to wrap things up.
The immediate effect of Trump's surprise announcement on Canada, which pushed stocks slightly down and off record high levels, was unclear — with talks with America's closest neighbors on yet another track.
The key date in those talks with Canada and Mexico often focuses on next summer, when there is a renewal deadline for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy summed up the many scenarios in a note to Yahoo Finance (before the Canada post).
“Markets are right to assume that bilateral trade deals are on a positive track…but markets shouldn't assume there's only one direction trade/tariffs can go” — adding that plenty of things could go south in the days and weeks ahead.
