The 2025 paper Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice suggests that investors should hold …
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The 2025 paper Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice suggests that investors should hold …
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35 comments
Can someone help explain what the paper recommends for a US investor? It might have been said but I’m still not comprehending. I see the bit of 67 international/33 domestic regardless of country, but most countries are outside the US. So would a 67 domestic/33 international be the recommendation for a US investor from the authors based on the findings of this study?
I love "nerdy" videos!!! 🙂
Ben, how much time do you spend researching and reading data to back up your videos?
Asset allocation should also include CD, Fixed Annuity, and money market fund. This is an anchor to your portfolio. The yearly return on these are always positive. These will enable you to buy the deep if there is a crash or major event. I also own physical gold and silver since 2006.
Give me fire
Give me stock
Give me dividend
Or I don't retire 😅
So the conclusion is just buy VEQT
the average retail investor doesn't have half the knowledge you have in mitigating risks when investing in only equities and in picking the right companies to buy (and when, and when to sell them, if ever)….Your strategy might not work for many of us. It's like a pro hockey player telling recreational players to always aim for top corner because that's the opposing goalie's weakness, yet half of them can't even hold a hockey stick properly.
Video didn’t age well🤣
Ben’s video’s are great and thought inspiring but (in my view) the only retirement portfolio that works is one determined using an LDI strategy which generally (will) result in a higher fixed income allocation. An LDI approach will project a need for a higher nest egg before retiring than a 100% equity portfolio. In short, if you need a projected higher equity based type yield to make your retirement work then you should not retire.
Your savings goal for retirement starts day 1 of your working career and should target age 55 for retirement to insulate yourself from a compelled early retirement.
By targeting age 55 for retirement you leave yourself flexibility to work to 65 if you run into headwinds.
I agree you should be heavily weighted into equities prior to retirement but once your LDI goal for retirement is met flip over to fixed income (individual T-Bills, Notes and bonds, TIPS, I-Bonds, corporate etc when yields are above 4.25% – I don’t use bond funds as the duration and volatility will never match-up to my LDI requirements – For LDI I used 30 years in retirement at a 3.5% inflation rate subtract out LDI covered by pension, SS and then fill in shortfall with fixed income. All excess above this amount is devoted to equities. The downside of LDI is you give up a lot of the opportunity of equity returns but you don’t need those higher returns to meet spending goals and have insulated yourself from market volatility. TIPS, IBONDs and SS Cola help insulate you (to some extent )from higher than expected inflation.
Be safe out there and hopefully this downturn is short lived.
Ps I don’t see many advisor’s talk about using an LDI approach (good and bad) maybe Ben will give a mention even if it’s LDI followed by a laugh🤣
1:54 “while it is not published . . . and while it has not undergone a peer review . . .”
I’ll read it after it has been.
this paper has a much more 'computer sciency' vibe where they've broken up data into blocks and applied sampling algorithms. I thnk the 'assumptions' of how the blocks represent real world actions should be scrutinized. Cultures/Regulations/WorkEthic/Luck all factor into how in a particular block, economic metrics happened
Thanks for the video Ben! I'm a US investor in my 20s. I started investing 100% believing in the US economy, but now I'm more 50/50. Based off the chart at 16:41, my "optimal portfolio" would be 60 domestic / 40% international stocks right? Is it worth holding a small percentage of bonds (I was thinking 5%, increasing it a few percent every 5 years)
Great video… But the timing couldn't have been much worse 😉
Method and methodology are not the same
Great stuff here. But the world economy has had an upheaval in the 5 days since you posted this. I would love to see a re-examination, in light of current projections;
Pretty hard video,Ben, but still interesting!
How do you justify domestic bias in a portfolio?
Does international include emerging markets?
Is real estate going to be worth more in this current political landscape? I am not an expert!
Closer to retirement you WANT a good sharpe ratio.
If you retire right after a big drawdown you are fucked
Why is it controversial to have stocks. Bond funds are dumb. I have nothing against a bond in itself but at fund is dumb
hmmm, he was bald the last time I saw his video. congrats with new style
Bro went to Turkey and got himself Istanbul hair 💇🏻♂️
20:25 Conclusion
Well this didn't age well
Thanks for the valuable knowledge shared. I wish all the best for you and your beloved.
no point buying non US stock in this life, other countries are doing worse
It’s wild how people still stick to the old idea of moving from stocks to bonds as they age. This new paper flips that, suggesting a 100% stock portfolio for life, even in retirement.
Did they model a scenario in which my fellow Americans elect a belligerent maniac who blows up the economy?
Love the hair!
Are the result robust to the size of the size of the blocks of the bootstrap?
I would argue that 10 years is too long and do not really simulate a new market. Just a slightly shuffled version of the observed history
There's an obvious heisenberg uncertainty issue here. If everyone held 100% stocks, then the stock market would be much more volatile, thus defeating the goal of the strategy.
Bonds are a waste of time and money.
Dear Ben, I find your videos really helpful and informational, but I found myself really confused, even though I tried my best to understand the paper. I live in Greece, so my domestic stock market is only 0.01-0.03% of the MSCI World index. I did see Greece in the list of developed countries on the paper, but it seems extreme to allocate 30% of my portfolio to Greece. I thought of using an MSCI Europe ETF in place of domestic allocation, but I m not sure either. Any insight would be welcome!
No annuities, real estate, or life insurance. It's not a very robust not brave to point out that bonds suck and have for 20+ years.
The US economy cannot survive without continuous credit and debt creation. The FED will print more money and the average American will go just that much further in debt. Meanwhile, foreigners lust for the greenbook. Their economies are in worse condition than the US… if that's even possible. Someone is going to be left holding the bag and a cautious outlook regarding a potential recession..
I’ve been doing this for decades. I just didn’t brag about it.