Stocks trade at record highs as government shutdown leaves economic data in limbo: What to watch

The biggest story for investors in the week ahead will be all the stories that won't be told.

Should the government remain shut down, releases including the Census Bureau's imports and exports figures, wholesale trade and inventories, and the key jobless claims numbers from the Labor Department will be delayed.

And this after we already missed Friday's September nonfarm payrolls numbers, muddying the economic picture for investors and policymakers with the Federal Reserve's next policy announcement due out in just over three weeks.

What we will get this week are the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, which saw the Federal Reserve vote to cut rates for the first time this year.

Of particular interest will be any commentary that paints a fuller picture of the views offered by newly appointed Fed governor Stephen Miran, who has enthusiastically called for stronger rate cuts than his colleagues at the central bank.

The University of Michigan's first look at consumer sentiment in October is also set for release, likely serving as the week's highlight if the government remains shut down.

Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments

Earnings will remain few and far between, with notable reports set to include those from Constellation Brands (STZ) on Monday and PepsiCo (PEP), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and Levi Strauss (LEVI) on Thursday.

The government will have been shut down for nearly a week by the time markets open Monday, and Congress appears to be no closer to making a deal than it was before the shutdown began.

Markets couldn't seem to care less.

On Wednesday, the first full day of the government shutdown, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.3% to close over 6,700 for the first time ever, landing at 6,711 on the day, while the Dow (^DJI) rose 0.1% to notch a second straight all-time high. On Thursday, the three major indexes — the S&P 500, Dow, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) — all hit fresh records.

Friday saw a continued strong performance as the Dow hit 47,000 for the first time ever and both the Dow and the S&P closed at record highs. The Nasdaq notched a slight pullback after shares in Tesla (TSLA) fell through Friday's trading session.

Strong performance in a shutdown isn't without precedent. In every shutdown since 1995, the S&P 500 has notched positive performance, according to data from LPL Financial.

“Investors have generally looked past budget-related disruptions, prioritizing corporate earnings, broader economic trends, and other key macroeconomic factors,” LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist said in an email.

Read more: How the government shutdown affects your student loans, Social Security, and more

If history is any guide, the shutdown is also likely to be short-lived.

The past 20 government shutdowns have averaged a length of eight days, according to data from Bank of America, and less than half crossed that mark.

That also means the shutdown is unlikely to stretch into the FOMC window, meaning the committee will be able to receive and review the government data it traditionally relies on to make decisions, even if on a delayed basis.

Economists were expecting to see the US added 50,000 jobs in September, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates as of Sept. 26.

Without government data, investors were left with alternative data as a reference point. Wednesday's September private payrolls report from ADP showed employers shed 32,000 jobs throughout the month, while a report from staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed hiring plans hitting the lowest levels in 16 years.

“Should the government shutdown be prolonged and delay the release of governmental labor market data, it will be hard for Federal Reserve officials to say conditions have improved since the September FOMC meeting,” said Oxford Economics analyst John Canavan in a research note.

Traders were pricing in a 97.8% chance of another quarter-point cut at the October FOMC meeting as of Friday.

Thursday also marked exactly six months since the Trump Administration's “Liberation Day” announcements that shook financial markets, and the S&P 500 has gained 25% since as worst-case scenarios for global trade seemed to grow consistently less likely.

But US stocks haven't been alone in enjoying a stellar run this year. Gold (GC=F), a traditional flight-to-safety investment, has also soared, up 26% over the same period and quickly approaching the $4,000 mark. Last week marked the seventh straight week of gains for the precious metal.

The government shutdown, rather than signaling newfound uncertainty for investors, appears to be viewed as a continuation of the year's policy-related volatility, which ultimately resolved itself positively for investors.

The long rally in gold has been one of the key storylines of the back half of the 2025 market, but bullion's strength isn't isolated.

While gold is up 47% over the past year, silver (SI=F) — often considered a secondary store of value behind bullion — is up an even stronger 49%. Platinum (PL=F) is even higher, up 65%.

The strong year for metals has been pegged to a few factors. Precious metals are a safe haven for investors — when everything looks rocky, gold feels good.

Metals are also dollar-denominated on global markets, and with the US Dollar Index down nearly 10%, metals have become a cheaper buy for non-US investors. And the dollar's decline has been supported, in part, by the Fed's plans to cut rates and questions about the central bank's standing in the eyes of the White House.

“Heightened concerns about the Fed's independence has boosted gold in particular, while USD weakness and resilient risk asset performance are helping silver and the [platinum group metals] stay stronger for longer,” commodities analysts at Macquarie said in a recent research note.

The other part of the story has been energy transition metals. Headlines on tariffs, supply chokes, and national policy from producer nations have made for a volatile year in a basket of transition metals such as copper (HG=F), lithium, and cobalt.

But commodities and energy market watchers see a long runway for upside.

Copper specifically has seen its price widely fluctuate, largely in line with the whims of Trump's trade policy. The threat of 50% tariffs in July sent futures soaring, but revisions to the policy sent prices crashing back to Earth and left copper traders with large sums of the metal stuck sitting in stateside warehouses.

This past week, the Trump administration formally announced its foothold in the lithium market — first reported in September — by taking a 5% stake in Lithium Americas Corp (LAC) and a 5% stake in a Lithium Americas-General Motors (GM) joint venture lithium mining project.

But even with the volatility, the metals are likely to perform well in the coming years, according to the International Energy Agency. The energy policy body has predicted that demand for lithium will grow fivefold by 2040, while copper and cobalt will see demand increases of 30% and 50%, respectively.

“We're just not going to have enough supply for the projected demand compared to how the world was prior,” Bloomberg commodity index products manager Jim Wiederhold told Yahoo Finance. “Where it was all fossil fuel energy-driven, now it's going to be more metals in focus.”

Economic data: No notable economic data.

Earnings calendar: Constellation Brands (STZ)

Economic data: Exports, month-on-month, August (0.3% previously)*; Imports, month-on-month, August (5.9% previously)*; Federal Reserve Bank of New York one-year inflation expectations, September (3.2% previously); Consumer credit, August ($15 billion expected, $16.01 billion previously)

Earnings calendar: McCormick & Company (MKC)

Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended Oct. 3 (-12.7% previously), Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, Sept. 17 meeting

Earnings calendar: No notable earnings.

Economic data: Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 4*; Continuing claims, week ended Sept. 27*; Wholesale trade sales, month-on-month, August (1.4% previously)*; Wholesale inventories, month-on-month, August (-0.2% previously)*

Earnings calendar: PepsiCo (PEP), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Levi Strauss (LEVI), VinFast Auto (VFS), Applied Digital Corporation (APLD)

Economic data: University of Michigan sentiment, October, preliminary reading (54.3 expected, 55.1 previously); University of Michigan one-year inflation, October preliminary reading (4.7% previously); University of Michigan 5-10 year inflation, October preliminary reading (3.7% previously)

Earnings calendar: No notable earnings.

*Data with an asterisk is provided by the federal government and will not be published while the government is shut down.

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