00:00 Speaker A
Well, President Trump's tariff uncertainty rattling markets. US stocks closing lower in the first trading day of September, kicking off what is historically the worst trading month of the year. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joining us now with the market takeaways. Jared.
00:20 Jared Blikre
And that is takeaway number one. It is an ominous start to an ominous month, the ominous September. And uh just as a reminder, I was uh I broke this down a little bit earlier today, but I'm going to show you one chart and this kind of encapsulates the big picture here. This is the S&P 500 monthly returns and we're using the median instead of uh the average, but this goes all the way back to 1990. What you notice here, September is the only negative month. And what you'll also notice is that October is pretty big and November is the biggest here. So the two best months follow. However, uh I also demonstrated that VIX seasonality moves upwards. And so you have a bullish VIX that gives you the potential for a crash or something of that nature. I don't want to be alarmist here. Um and that's not the purpose of it. It's just to be in the back of everyone's heads that this is the time of year when you want to be a little bit more careful. And this is the S&P 500 today. I'll show you a real quick chart. You can see, well, this is actually the last three months. So in the big picture, what we saw today, 7/10ths of a percent to the downside, not really disrupting the long-term trend at all. And then if I show you what's happening with the VIX here, there we go, up to 17. So it's not a disaster, but you can see this is the highest level that we've had since early August. We actually began August, if you remember exactly one month ago, with a pretty bad down day. So, something to keep uh something to keep in mind here, just a yellow warning flag, nothing too big, but we want to keep it on our radar.
01:46 Speaker A
Stocks were down. What was up?
01:48 Jared Blikre
We got to take a look at the dollar and rates. And uh, this is interesting. The dollar having its biggest jump in a couple weeks now, and also seeing rates head higher to some pretty big levels that I'm keeping track of. We'll begin with the dollar. This is over the last three months. So, here's the jump that we saw today. And you'll notice this is a sideways trending chart. Now, it depends on your time frame though. If you look at the year to date, you can see we have been camping out at the lower end of this chart for some time. And I've said many times that the pain trade is to the upside. That's because Wall Street is very bullish, uh bearish on the dollar. In fact, most people are bearish, uh given what's happened with tariffs and everything else. I might be wrong in that, but the pain trade is to the upside. So if we saw a big jump there, that's something that could hurt investors. Uh 30-year yield is the big rates uh market that I'm looking at. Uh just to show you, let's dial this back down to a three-month chart. There we go. This is the highest level that we've seen since about July. And I would say too, I would add to this analysis, anytime you get up by 5% when it crosses that threshold, big psychological number, or 5.1% to the upside, that's when we tend to see that kind of activity in the bond market spill over and you see equities roll over a little bit. So we've been here before. That was that July that we were just looking at. Then in May, we got it 5.1, and we've been here last year as well. So something we want to keep in mind there. So you add up the yellow and yellow, maybe you got an orange uh warning flag.
03:26 Speaker A
I feel like we should talk about the yellow metal while I have you.
03:29 Jared Blikre
Yes, let's do that because I was watching gold. Gold has not just hit yet another record high. and by the way, silver's breaking out too. It is uh gold just had its best day in several weeks if not several months. And let's get to our commodities heat map where we can see the price action and we'll dial that up and here we go. Um gold is up 2.4%. That's a decent amount for gold. But if I put the year- to- date on, that was just the intraday, you can see we had this law, this big consolidation here, had kind of a pennant formation and then we broke to the upside. And I love the saying of Ralph Alcampora. Uh he's a CMT chartered market technician, also called the godfather of technical analysis. The longer the base, the higher in space. And so, yeah, is gold going to the moon? That's, you know, that's a Wall Street bets term. But 3600 is definitely a record. Haven't seen that before. And I got to think given the length of this base, gold probably heading higher unless, unless this is a false break uh to the upside in which case you'd see it reverse to the downside over the next couple days. I'm not too worried about that. As long as 3500 holds here, we're probably seeing much higher gold prices.
04:39 Speaker A
Wanna do a quick final check on Bitcoin?
04:41 Jared Blikre
Let us do that as well. I thought it was really interesting today because stocks were down. This is a year-to-date. Let me just dial this down to an intraday. Stocks were down and Bitcoin has typically been following the action of price action of stocks. Nevertheless, Bitcoin was up today, also on a day that gold was breaking out. So, question to myself is, is Bitcoin breaking its historical correlation with stocks right now? And because Bitcoin correlations, they shift over time. So, maybe Bitcoin is becoming more of a inflation hedge, Armageddon hedge. I don't want to put too uh too many thoughts in people's minds, but nevertheless, I think the Bulls will take that 111,000 in Bitcoin.
05:21 Speaker A
Thank you buddy. Appreciate it.
