S&P 500, Nasdaq climb with government shutdown in focus

US stocks mostly climbed on Monday as investors eyed a looming US government shutdown that risks delaying the release of the all-important monthly jobs report later in the week.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) popped nearly 0.9%, with the the two gauges poised to build on Friday's rebound. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped more than 0.1%.

Markets are assessing the odds of a US government shutdown on Wednesday this week, as a standoff between Republicans and Democrats goes down to the wire. A meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders is set for Monday, likely the last hope of avoiding a halt to federal funding. Odds of a shutdown are seen over 70%, according to Polymarket.

The risk is leaving an air of doubt over whether the government will release key economic data as scheduled. That includes the highly anticipated monthly jobs report on Friday, key to the Federal Reserve's policy setting and so, too, the bets on interest rate cuts that have helped buoy stocks.

Last week, jobless claims fell short and GDP growth was revised higher, fueling speculation that the Fed may not cut rates as aggressively as hoped. That puts even more weight on the September jobs report, amid forecasts that nonfarm payrolls grew 43,000 and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% for the month.

At the same time, investors are regrouping from a losing week that saw cracks emerge in AI-focused stock trading as well as surprise tariff announcements from President Trump for Oct. 1. On Monday, Trump added to those tariff announcements by proposing new duties on movies and furniture.

Despite that, stocks are still on pace to finish September — and the third quarter — with gains. The S&P 500 is up 2.8% month-to-date, while the Dow has added 1.5%. The Nasdaq, boosted by tech, has rallied 2.9%.

Shares in Carnival (CCL) rose after the cruise line raised its annual profit forecast and posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Monday. The docket this week is light, with Nike's (NKE) report on Wednesday set to be the highlight. Wall Street is starting to look ahead to third quarter earnings season, which big banks will get underway in earnest in mid-October.

LIVE 14 updates

Dallas Fed's index for Texas manufacturing activity drops more than expected

The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing dropped to -8.7 in September, lower than the -1 reading expected and the -1.8 in August.

Texas accounts for more than 10% of US manufacturing output.

The contraction in manufacturing activity in the state comes after the S&P Global's Flash PMI reading last week showed the broader US manufacturing and services sectors grew less than expected in September.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed's employment index for Texas manufacturing dropped 12 points to -3.4 in September, marking “a slight decline in employment” and the lowest reading since April, amid broader cracks in the US labor market.

At the same time, production in the manufacturing sector in Texas grew at a slower pace, with the regional bank's production index falling 10 points from August to 5.2.

The latest data is another metric of the country's economic health as the Federal Reserve weighs further interest rate cuts this year.
Intel stock falls, ending rally

Intel (INTC) shares fell on Monday after surging more than 20% during the prior trading week.

The stock dipped more than 3% in early trading, snapping its recent rally following Nvidia's (NVDA) announcement that the AI chipmaker would take a $5 billion stake in the struggling company and that the two firms would partner to develop chips for data centers and personal computers.

The US government also made a $9 billion investment in Intel in August.

Deutsche Bank (DB) analyst Ross Seymore wrote in a note to clients on Monday that the moves “reflect CEO Lip Bu Tan's aggressive pursuit of strengthening the company's balance sheet at all costs.”

Tan assumed his role as chief executive of Intel earlier this year after the ouster of former CEO Pat Gelsinger last December.

But Seymore also said that it will likely be a few years before Intel sees the benefit of its latest turnaround efforts.

“We note that the true financial benefit of the steps taken by the company (investment in foundry, rehabbing their product roadmap, announced collaborations) remain unlikely until 2028+,” Seymore wrote.
Stocks rise at the open as government shutdown looms

US stocks climbed on Monday at the open, despite a looming US government shutdown that could delay the release of significant monthly jobs report later in the week, which will factor into the Federal Reserve's path of interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 0.5%. The moves built on Friday's rebound after the major gauges slumped last week to snap a record-breaking rally.
Wall Street says high stock valuations may be here to stay

Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports:

Read more here.
EA stock jumps on $55 billion acquisition deal

Electronic Arts (EA) announced on Monday that it will be acquired by a group of investors comprising Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake, and Affinity Partners in a deal valued at $55 billion.

The deal marks the largest leveraged buyout in history.

Shares of the maker of the “Sims” and “Madden NFL” video game franchises jumped over 5% in premarket to $204 per share, as shareholders will receive $210 per share from the deal, a 25% premium to the stock price as of Sept. 25.

The stock surged nearly 15% on Friday after the Wall Street Journal initially reported that EA was in advanced talks to be acquired for as much as $50 billion. Year to date, the stock is up 32%.
MoonLake stock poised for huge wipeout after drug trial disappoints

Shares in MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) cratered almost 90% a couple of hours before the bell on the heels of disappointing trial data.

The biopharma company's trial results for a skin disease drug fell short of showing it was superior to treatments such as UCB SA's Bimzelx, analysts found.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.
Cannabis stocks surge after Trump appears to back CBD for senior healthcare

Shares of pot companies climbed in premarket trading on Monday after President Trump shared a video advocating the potential benefits from the use of cannabidiol (CBD) in senior healthcare.

Canopy Growth's (CGC) US-listed stock was up around 14%, paring a gain of almost 20% in the early hours. Tilray Brands (TLRY) jumped over 18%, while Cronos Group (CRON) and Aurora Cannabis (ACB) both added about 10%.

Reuters reports:

Trump had said last month his administration was looking to reclassify marijuana, which could also result in potentially easing criminal penalties around its use.

Hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD) could “revolutionize senior healthcare” by helping reduce disease progression and was shown as an alternative to prescription drugs, according to a video shared by Trump on Truth Social on Sunday. …

Trump “already hinted that they were planning to reclassify it. This doesn't mean it's legalizing the drug, but it does reduce some of the burden on the companies,” said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

“I do think there is further room for these stocks to move higher if it's confirmed that the reclassification is happening.”

Read more here.
Good morning. Here's what's happening today.
Premarket trending tickers: Canopy Growth, GSK and AstraZeneca

Here's a look at some of the top stocks trending in premarket trading:

Canopy Growth (CGC) and Tilray Brands (TLRY) US-listed shares jumped in premarket trading on Monday following President Trump's social media post suggesting the possible benefits of cannabidiol.

GSK's (GSK) US-listed shares rose 3% following the news that its CEO Emma Walmsley will step down in December and be replaced by insider Luke Miels.

AstraZeneca's (AZN) stock rose 1%v before the bell after announcing it will directly list its shares in the US and invest $50 billion in US manufacturing.
Alibaba stock rises after bullish analyst calls on AI, cloud

Alibaba (BABA, 9988.HK) shares climbed on Monday, up around over 3% before the bell on Wall Street after closing higher in Hong Kong.

The gains came after analysts lifted their price targets on the stock, citing the Chinese tech giant's accelerated push into AI.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.
Higher stakes, a Fed ‘flying blind,' and a ‘data desert': Why this government shutdown would actually matter

In the seven years since the shutdown happened in President Trump's first term, Americans have been in a perennial state of “will they, won't they?” notes Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato.

Investors have mostly become desensitized to the drama, but this time could really be different, he writes in a takeaway from Morning Brief:

Read more here.
Goldman shows the love for stocks

I've been diving into Goldman's note this morning, which upgrades stocks to Overweight from Neutral.

I don't think there is anything too surprising here. The markets have been the place to be in 2025, and there are powerful catalysts still supportive of higher stock prices. So why should any bank be the one to downgrade stocks just for the sake of trying to make a bold call?

A couple of key points from Goldman:
Gold pops as dollar falls against shutdown backdrop

Gold (GC=F) pushed to a new high, notching a record over $3,800 an ounce, as government insecurity and a weak dollar bolstered desire for the haven asset.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.
Oil falls with as stockpiles rise and production increases

Oil fell overnight Sunday with an upcoming OPEC+ production hike suppressing price of the commodity.

Bloomberg reports:

Brent (BZ=F) fell below $70 a barrel after advancing 5.2% last week, and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was around $65. The alliance led by Saudi Arabia is considering raising output by at least as much as the 137,000 barrel-a-day hike scheduled for next month, according to people familiar with the plans.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are pursuing a strategy to reclaim market share rather than their typical role of managing prices, bringing back an additional layer of idled output. Still, prices have held up reasonably well, underpinned by robust buying from China.

However, the International Energy Agency is projecting a record glut in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from the group’s rivals climbs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees Brent falling to the mid-$50s a barrel next year, despite crude stockpiling from China.

Read more here.