Small Fleets, Brokers Hold Steady Optimism Despite Freight Market Headwinds

Truckstop.com/Bloomberg Intelligence midyear survey reveals industry resilience as carriers and brokers navigate challenging conditions. The freight industry’s grassroots operators aren’t throwing in the towel just yet. Despite revenue challenges and tariff concerns, 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers expect volumes to rise or stay flat over the next six months.

A challenging first half of 2025 left many carriers and brokers scrambling to maintain margins or recover from what seems like a year-long, never-ending bloodbath. A new midyear survey from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence shows the small fleet and brokerage community remains cautiously optimistic about the months ahead.

The survey, which captured responses from 204 carrier firms and 185 brokerages, paints a picture of an industry that’s been battered but not broken. While revenue growth has been elusive for most, only 16% of carriers and 36% of brokers reported year-over-year gains; the majority still believe better days are coming.

“Many carriers and brokers remained optimistic through the first half of 2025 despite facing difficulties,” said Todd Markusic, customer insights manager at Truckstop.com. “While the freight market underperformed in the second quarter, with no clear resolution for how tariffs will impact the economy, many in the industry are expecting a recovery in the next six months.”

That optimism translates into concrete expectations: 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers believe freight volumes will either increase or remain flat over the next six months.

For carriers, the rate environment continues to be a mixed bag with heavy doses of uncertainty.

Only 17% said rates have improved since the second quarter of 2024, though 42% expect rates to climb in the third quarter. That’s down 13 percentage points from first-quarter expectations, suggesting the reality of a prolonged soft market is setting in.

Nearly half of carriers, 48%, admitted they’re unsure when rates will finally bottom out, a seven-point increase from the first quarter. Yet 84% still believe rates will either rise or hold steady over the next six months.

The load volume picture is slightly more encouraging. Among carriers, 56% said volumes during the second quarter were up or flat compared to the same period last year, and 79% expect their revenues to remain stable or increase over the next six months.

Brokers, meanwhile, are painting a more positive picture of their market conditions.

Comparing the first half of 2025 to the same period last year, 39% of brokers said spot rates increased, while 78% reported contract rate improvements. Revenue performance was similarly strong, with 72% seeing flat or positive revenue growth during the first half.

Most brokerages are operating on 15% gross margins, and 69% believe their current margins are higher than both halves of 2024. Looking ahead, 82% expect gross margins to increase or stay flat over the next six months.

The survey revealed a notable gap between how carriers and brokers view demand trends.

While 19% of carriers reported year-over-year load volume increases, 37% of brokers reported higher volumes. That disparity extends to forward-looking expectations: 52% of carriers expect demand to grow over the next three to six months, while 83% of brokers believe demand will be up or flat over the next six months.

The difference likely reflects brokers’ broader market visibility and their ability to shift between different carrier relationships as conditions change.

The specter of trade policy continues to cast a shadow over industry sentiment.

Carriers are increasingly concerned about tariffs delaying any meaningful freight recovery. Thirty-eight percent now believe tariffs will significantly hurt the industry, up from 30% in the previous quarter. Overall, 55% say tariffs will have at least some negative impact.

Brokers have also soured on the current administration’s policies. In December, 74% thought the administration would benefit trucking. Six months later, only 44% maintain that view.

Despite the generally optimistic outlook, financial pressures are forcing many operators to pump the brakes on growth investments.

Only 21% of carriers plan to purchase new equipment, down sharply from 38% in the first quarter. Similarly, just 40% of brokerage firms expect to hire additional brokers in 2025, compared to 52% in December 2024.

The pullback reflects the reality of operating in a margin-compressed environment where cash preservation often trumps expansion plans.

Job satisfaction metrics suggest the industry’s human capital challenges aren’t getting dramatically worse, even if they’re not improving either.

Among brokers, job satisfaction dipped modestly to 78% from 83% in December. For carriers, satisfaction dropped more notably to 54% from 65% in the first quarter.

Still, only 10% of carriers are considering leaving the industry, a change of only 1 percentage point from 9% in the first quarter. Among brokers, just 6% expressed job dissatisfaction compared to 18% of carriers.

The survey targeted the industry’s grassroots operators, with 75% of carrier respondents operating five or fewer trucks. Flatbed carriers comprised the largest segment at 49% of responses.

On the brokerage side, firms with 1-50 employees accounted for 68% of respondents, representing the small to mid-sized brokerages that handle much of the industry’s spot market activity.

The persistence of optimism among these smaller operators, who typically feel market pressures first and most acutely, suggests the freight community’s belief in an eventual turnaround remains intact despite the challenging operating environment.

Whether that optimism proves justified will largely depend on how quickly broader economic conditions improve and trade policy uncertainties resolve. For now, the industry’s grassroots operators are hunkering down and betting that better times are ahead.

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