00:09 Josh
S&P 500, the Nasdaq closing the trading day higher, getting a lift from Alphabet's rally. Yahoo Finances Jared Blickry joins us now with the trading day takeaways. Jared.
00:20 Jared Blickre
Thank you, Josh. Last two weeks we were talking about rotation. That was the end of August, but now are we seeing more of it? Kind of reminded me of some of that. So let's go over what happened today in the markets. We had the Dow down, we had the Nasdaq up over 1%, S&P 500 kind of splitting the difference and the small caps slightly in the red today.
00:43 Jared Blickre
I want to go to the sector action. You mentioned Google, Alphabet, that was really a driving communications uh higher. And then so you can see that got 1.67% to the upside today. Also there was spillover in Apple. Apple is in the tech sector, that saw some nice out performance. Those were the only two outperformers. And then the only other sector in the green was consumer discretionary. So, not surprisingly, and by the way, that's Amazon and Tesla. When we look at the Nasdaq 100, what really stands out is the out performance in some of these stocks we were just talking about, but the Mag 7 overall, and it's kind of reminded me of a defensive trade. And we really see this when might when we take a look at the leaders here. This is a bunch of ETFs I've collected that kind of give me an idea of what's happening sentiment-wise in the market. Number one on that list is MAGS. That's the Mag 7 ETF, that's up 2 and a half%. Then you have New York Fang, a lot of crossover between those two admittedly. Then you have the solar trade, which is kind of strangely erupted over the last month. And then you have the uh US Internet, Korea, uh that's US what is that? Korean market and that's also a chip proxy. Then we have Bitcoin, Biotech, and then we got the Qs, which is a Nasdaq 100. And so you see a little bit of red here, but my leaders are for the most part in the green. So this is a kind of a narrowing of the market. I'm not sure how to make it, but when we go to our next little bullet point here, things will become a little bit more clear.
02:12 Josh
So that's stocks. Yes. What about the bond market?
02:14 Jared Blickre
There we go. We got to take a look at rates rolling over because I think this kind of completes the picture and it's not just about rotation because we did see that defensive trade into some of those larger names today and yes, they can be a defensive trade. But what really strikes me is how rates across the entire yield curve are heading down. So this is the 13 week T bill. Chart looks kind of funny because it doesn't move that much intraday. It was down one basis point, but when I put a year to date on, you can see how it was just going sideways at. And by the way, this tracks the short end of the curve, what the Federal Reserve is responsible for, and it was going sideways because no one was expecting the Fed to deviate from its plan that much, but then over the last few weeks, it really broke down. And so this is rate cuts getting priced in. and uh we saw the JOLTS number come in today a little bit weaker than was expected. Of course, that's ahead of this week's non-farm payrolls on Friday. That's a big jobs report. And I you know, rate cuts are great unless you really needed them yesterday. and if the market figures out that the Fed is behind the eight ball, maybe it is. and if you listen to some of the, you know, Waller and some of the other Fed people, maybe it's behind the eight ball, then things can get a little bit dicey in terms of stocks and equities. So let that was the short end of the curve. Let me show you what's happening on the long end of the curve. That's the full year. Let me just show you intraday. We got an eight basis point move to the downside down we're down to 4.89%. Not only do we have the risk that the Fed is behind the eight ball, but we've also seen long-term rates uh a little bit too high several times this year. and when it gets above five and particularly 5.1%, there's really not much stopping it to go much higher. And that's kind of when the bond vigilantes are in control and that's when you also see equities roll over. So stocks are facing multiple risks right here. We're also entering the most dangerous time of year uh in terms of crashes and we know that the VIX tends to head higher into the uh end of October. So you put it all together, we're facing a number of headwinds right now. Nevertheless, I just want to point out, I'm not sending red alarm bells because we are at or near record highs in most of the major indices. So you put it all together, there there are some warning bells, but uh there are some risks that we got to pay attention to every day.
03:38 Josh
So stocks, we hit bonds, what about the metals?
03:41 Jared Blickre
Well, here's another one. Gold smashing records. Uh I've been I've been looking at the gold market explode above 3,500 and let me just do it down here. I do have gold here and there we go. 3620. Yesterday was 3600. This is just over the last month. Take check out the year to date. I'm going to do this again. I showed this pattern yesterday. Uh Gold was going sideways for a number of months and then it exploded to the upside just over the last few days. Well, given the length of that base, it can go much higher in space. So the rhyme goes. And uh what's why why why would gold be uh kind of unhinged right now? Well, that gets to the fact that the federal fiscal position has caused the long end of the curve to kind of become unhinged. And meanwhile, you have the Fed lowering rates and kind of giving away free money or approaching that zone where they're giving away money. So you put it all together, commodities like gold and the precious metals should outperform in that scenario.
04:30 Josh
All right. Thank you, Jared.
04:32 Jared Blickre
You bet.
