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Pound inches higher after Trump's tariff announcements and Fed decision
  • Investing

Pound inches higher after Trump’s tariff announcements and Fed decision

  • July 31, 2025
  • Roubens Andy King
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The pound advanced against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) on Thursday morning, up 0.1% to $1.3253 at the time of writing, following a number of US tariff announcements ahead of president Donald Trump's extended deadline for agreeing trade deals on Friday.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was little changed at 99.74.

Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea on Wednesday evening that will see the US place 15% tariffs on imports from the country.

Earlier on Wednesday, the president made other moves on tariffs, including threatening a 25% levy on goods from India and slapping massive 50% duties on imports from Brazil. Trump also suggested that beginning 1 August, India could pay an additional penalty because of its ties with Russia.

In addition, the president announced a 50% tariff on copper pipes and wiring that will also come into place on Friday.

Investors were also digesting the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to keep interest rates on hold in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

Read more: Stocks climb higher as traders cheer slew of strong earnings reports

Jim Reid, a market strategist at Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE), said: “The prepared statement saw a modest downgrade to the language on growth, but Powell’s press conference leaned more hawkish as he painted a picture of a solid US economy with a labour market that is in balance.

“While the Fed chair acknowledged that a ‘reasonable base case' was that the impact of tariffs on prices would be a one-time shift, he noted the risks that it could be more persistent.

“Powell declined to be drawn on what data would justify a September cut. Our US economists note that Powell avoided potential dovish hints, not emphasising slowing services inflation and downplaying any signals from payrolls weakness.”

He added that Deutsche Bank's US economists still expect the next rate cut to be announced in December.

In other currency moves, the pound was little changed against the euro (GBPEUR=X) on Thursday morning, trading at €1.1581 at the time of writing.

Gold prices ticked higher on Thursday morning, as investors weighed tariff concerns against strong economic data out of the US.

Gold futures (GC=F) rose 0.3% to $3,304 per ounce at the time of writing, while spot gold was up 0.9% to $3,306.13 per ounce.

Data released on Wednesday showed that the US economy grew by 3% in the second quarter, ahead of the 2.6% expected by economist surveyed by Bloomberg. This marked a rebound after the US economy contracted for the first time in three years to start 2025.

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Meanwhile, an ADP employment report showed stronger job gains in July at 104,000, compared to expectations of 76,000, rebounding after a decline in June.

Investor attention will now turn to the release of the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index reading, due out later on Thursday. It is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said: “Inflation has been relatively benign but it’s the next few months that matter as tariffs could bite.

“Month-on-month core PCE inflation has been 0.0%, 0.1% and 0.2% in the April-May period, but the July-Sep data is likely to tick higher. June’s data today is expected to rise to +0.3%, or +2.70% annually. We could see it continue to tick up further on a monthly basis in the Jul-Sep period to 0.5% and 3.0% annually – a reason why the Fed is happy to wait and see for now.”

Oil prices were muted on Thursday morning as investors kept in mind Trump's shortened deadline for Russia to end its military campaign in Ukraine and threats against countries trading its oil.

Brent crude (BZ=F) futures dipped 0.1% to $70.81 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) were little changed at $69.96 a barrel.

In addition to 25% tariffs, Trump suggested that India face an additional “penalty” for buying Russian arms and oil, without specifying exactly what this meant.

Wilson said oil prices had been rising “despite running up against stalling US data as the EIA reported the biggest inventory build in six months. The 7.7mn barrel increase was the largest since January and came a day after API reported an unexpected build.

“Prices however remained supported as president Trump seems to be getting tired with Russia, and oil markets have priced in the chance of a potential supply disruption. Watch this and 1 August tariff deadline tomorrow and rising Opec+ output. Brent and WTI have both made clear breaches of the 200-day SMA with momentum indicator (MACD) turning positive.”

In broader market movements, FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose 0.2% on Thursday morning to 9,156 points. For more details, on market movements check our live coverage here.

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