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Nvidia stock was a sure winner over the past two years before slipping a few months ago.
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Investors worried that import tariffs would weigh on growth.
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Since then, though, positive momentum has returned.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) was a surefire winner for investors over the past two calendar years. The artificial intelligence (AI) giant soared more than 800% over that time as it wowed investors with its explosive earnings growth. And as they aimed to get in on the AI growth story, Nvidia seemed like the obvious choice. After all, this tech player sells the world's top-performing AI chips, a critical product for customers building AI platforms.
But earlier this year, Nvidia stock slid into the doldrums alongside the rest of the tech market. This happened as investors worried about the impact of U.S. import tariffs on the consumer and corporate earnings. The idea was that this could lead to companies reining in spending, which might include lower spending on AI, potentially bad news for Nvidia. On top of this, U.S. controls on chip exports to China also weighed on Nvidia's growth potential.
These concerns resulted in a decline of nearly 30% in Nvidia stock from the start of the year through early April. Since then, though, the stock and the general market have rebounded and even gone on to advance. Nvidia has climbed more than 60% from its low, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have both recorded new record highs. Now, my prediction is that this movement isn't over, and Nvidia will soar in the second half. Let's find out why.
First, though, let's take a look at the Nvidia story so far to understand what may lie ahead. Nvidia wasn't always synonymous with AI. In fact, the company's graphics processing units (GPUs) were originally most known for powering video games. But the GPU's ability to handle many tasks simultaneously prompted Nvidia to create the parallel computing platform CUDA and expand the chip's uses into other industries, including AI.
This proved to be a key move for the company, as AI has helped revenue skyrocket, as you can see in the chart below.
Importantly, Nvidia isn't just growing revenue but also increasing profitability on sales. We can see this in gross margin figures, which have exceeded 70% in recent quarters. The one exception was in the latest quarter, when the gross margin slipped to 60% due to a charge linked to export controls — U.S. restrictions blocked planned sales, resulting in a billion-dollar charge. Excluding the charge, though, gross margin still topped 70%.
