‘Nothing To Do Until October’

Bitcoin may be stuck in limbo until October, according to crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz, who delivered a sobering assessment of the current market setup during his August 3 video analysis. The veteran trader described Bitcoin’s technicals and seasonal context as fundamentally uninviting, cautioning that “there’s nothing to do” until a more compelling risk-reward profile emerges—likely not before Q4.

Bitcoin Bulls On Pause

Olszewicz began by referencing last week’s Bollinger Band squeeze, a technical pattern that often precedes significant volatility. The squeeze resolved to the downside following a combination of weak US jobs data, negative ETF flows, and escalating geopolitical tensions—including reports of US nuclear submarine movements near Russia. “Markets certainly didn’t like that,” he remarked.

The ETF flow data was central to his outlook. While Ethereum recently saw a resurgence in ETF inflows—contributing to one of its strongest Julys ever—Bitcoin’s flows flipped negative. “Flows, if anything, are what can save us in these two months of doldrums,” he said, referring to August and September. Yet, the current trajectory shows little promise of reversal. “The decision tree got a lot wider after breaking down,” he explained. “Because in the next two months, it’s generally junk. That’s just what it is.”

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Olszewicz underscored the seasonal softness of Q3 for both equities and crypto, particularly emphasizing that historically, August and September are low-activity months. “Wake me up when September ends,” he quipped, reinforcing that traders should expect little from the market until October—a month historically associated with strong performance. “You do not want to miss October, even if October is negative 80%. This is about probabilities.”

From a technical perspective, Olszewicz noted that Bitcoin remains in a vulnerable zone after stalling at the yearly pivot around $122,000. “Despite this great-looking chart pattern, we just stopped dead cold at $122,000,” he said. “If we break $122,000, the next level is $150,000—that’s psychological, it’s the measured move, and it’s the yearly pivot.”

However, a more immediate concern lies in the potential for a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which would trigger a sell signal in his system. “It’s a Pavlovian response. Bearish TK cross, you close your longs,” he said bluntly. “If we revisit 100 at this point, you’re going to get a lot of people talking about end-of-cycle stuff.”

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) data from CME further amplifies the caution. “Commercials have dropped off a cliff,” Olszewicz warned. “Not something you want to see if you’re bullish.” The data suggests a sharp reduction in institutional positioning on the long side, adding another layer of headwind for the BTC price.

Still, not all is lost. Olszewicz pointed to historical precedents, such as the difficult August and September of 2023 when Bitcoin was battered by Mt. Gox distributions and German government sell-offs. Despite the noise, Bitcoin rallied in October following the approval of spot ETFs and held above the cloud for an extended period. “It can look like the end for many, many reasons, and we can still make it,” he stressed.

For traders looking to re-enter the market, he identified the $117K–$120K range as a potential re-entry zone if BTC can reclaim that area within the next two weeks. “It’s up to the bulls to hold this just flat for two weeks,” he said. “It shouldn’t be that hard to do if there are buyers in this market.”

But until then, he remains on the sidelines: “There’s just nothing to do. It’s in no man’s land at the moment.”

With Bitcoin in a technical holding pattern, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from legacy markets, Olszewicz made it clear that forcing trades in this environment could prove costly. His advice? Stay patient, stay liquid, and watch October.

At press time, BTC traded at $114,517.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com