My Prediction for What Comes Next

Joby Aviation stock is soaring on optimism for its electric air taxi network.
The company is aiming to ramp up manufacturing and finish its FAA certification.
The stock trades at an expensive price versus any reasonable expectations for future revenue.
10 stocks we like better than Joby Aviation ›

Nobody enjoys sitting in traffic. And yet, the average American will sit in over two weeks of traffic each year. One company believes it has paved a way to help alleviate the traffic pressure in cities around the globe: Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY). It is manufacturing and testing electric air taxis, which can go point-to-point over cities more quietly than traditional helicopters, saving people time and frustration.

Joby's air taxis are not operational yet, but the stock recently burst through to an all-time high of $17.50 a share on investor enthusiasm for its manufacturing progress and partnerships with large transportation players. It now has a market cap of $14.8 billion even though it generates zero dollars in revenue. Here's my prediction for what comes next with Joby Aviation stock.

Utilizing electric motor technology and innovations in aerodynamics, Joby Aviation has created a vertical takeoff vehicle that is quiet enough to leave from residential neighborhoods. It is manned by a pilot, can fit four riders, and has a top speed of 200 miles per hour. The company is planning to set up point-to-point networks in major cities such as New York, where customers will be able to hop from Manhattan directly to the airport, shaving off time that would have been spent sitting in traffic.

The company is not officially operating its network yet, but it's working with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the final stages of testing its aircraft. Multiple pilots have flown the Joby vehicle already, with its manufacturing facilities producing its fifth aircraft for pilots last quarter. Management recently announced an expansion of its factory in California, with plans to eventually produce 24 air taxis annually from this location.

Multiple transportation companies have seen the promise in Joby Aviation. Toyota Motors has invested a total of $894 million in the company and is working directly with the company on manufacturing processes. Delta Air Lines is an investor, while Uber Technologies is a partner that will eventually add Joby flights to its ride-sharing application. Joby needs to get a lot of customer demand in order to get a return on its air taxi spending, which will require full operating schedules and high ticket prices. This is possible if its partners such as Uber and Delta drive customers to the upcoming service.

The company is not just looking to expand in New York. It is working to add air taxis to Los Angeles, Dubai, and even Japan and the United Kingdom. Most major cities in the world have traffic issues and could see some (especially wealthier) citizens utilize this upcoming air taxi network.

Image source: Getty Images.

There is a lot of promise with Joby's air taxis, but the growth is all theoretical today. Joby does not generate any revenue, is still in the FAA certification process, and has manufactured only a few air taxis to date.

Still, it is aggressively burning money on research, manufacturing, and overhead costs as it works to build up its vertically integrated factory network in the United States. In the first quarter of 2025, it spent $134 million on research and development. Over the last 12 months, free cash flow was negative $489 million. The company does have $813 million in cash and a $500 million commitment from Toyota, but this only gives it two to three years of cash burn at its current rate before it will need to raise more funds.

JOBY Free Cash Flow Chart — JOBY Free Cash Flow data by YCharts

I like the idea of air taxi networks. As long as they can be operated safely, it is a path forward to help alleviate traffic on major highways in metro areas, and it looks like something people will pay up for in order to save time on the way to the airport or other societal hubs.

My problem comes from Joby Aviation's market cap of $14.8 billion, making the stock wildly overvalued for a pre-revenue start-up. At its current manufacturing run-rate of 24 air taxis a year that could grow in the years to come, Joby Aviation may have 200 vehicles in operation by 2030. Assuming 20 flights per vehicle per day at $500 each split among the four passengers, that is $730 million in annual revenue for Joby Aviation. It is currently spending close to $500 million a year before generating any sales. There will be variable costs when its taxi network starts operating, along with more money spent to build each vehicle.

It is unlikely that Joby Aviation will generate a profit by 2030 even if it can scale up its air taxi routes and charge an average of $500 per flight (which is more than the average round-trip airline ticket for comparable routes). Air taxis are an interesting idea, but that doesn't mean Joby Aviation is a buy with the stock trading at a market cap of $14.8 billion. I predict that pain is ahead for Joby Aviation shareholders for the rest of this decade, even if the company remains on track with its air taxi network buildout.

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Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Joby Aviation Stock Soars to an All-Time High: My Prediction for What Comes Next was originally published by The Motley Fool