00:00 Speaker A
Tim, it is good to see you. Uh so maybe start big picture, Tim, and and curious where you think this market is and and where we're headed. I I spoke to uh Adam Johnson recently on the show. Adam uh portfolio manager, friend of mine, all around very smart guy and and Adam telling me he's he's broadly constructive on the market, Tim. And I asked him why, and he said, you know, it's simple. It just comes down to the two E's. And by that he meant earnings and employment. And as long as those are solid, to him, his point was, he's gonna stay constructive on this market. He thinks there's there's just generally more to like than fear and I'm curious to get your take on that.
01:25 Tim
Look, Adam's had a great call on the market. He's been stalwartly resistant even at the lows six weeks ago. And um I I I I think I certainly do not disagree with him. I do think that the path of least resistance is higher. Uh and and I think there is some selectivity uh required in both sectors and individual stocks. Um I have to be a little bit careful about how I talk about individual stocks, but definitely, the market has had a much stronger, faster V-shaped recovery off those lows that we saw right at the heights of the uh tariff tantrum, if you want to call it that, about six weeks ago. And look, we're at an inflection point right now. We're up near where we were six weeks ago. It's the next move, 5% higher, is not gonna be easy. But it it it it certainly feels like both the uh uh the macro picture and the earnings uh picture for individual companies is headed in the right direction.
03:55 Speaker A
So we could look to him, we could say, listen, earnings solid, economy running I think 2.4% according to the Atlanta Fed tracker. I mean, those are are reasons to stay positive. What would be on Tim your your list of worries? What would be on your radar of concerns?
04:52 Tim
Well, obviously, if uh if we got through the next uh uh month or two with and had very disappointing progress on the uh uh making uh tariff deals and trade deals with key trading partners around the globe. I I think that the market would not receive that very well and maybe uh uh take another turn lower. Uh and I think if you were to just have a a complete stalemate in the major conflicts around the globe, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and and and and and a complete uh refusal for Iran to do any negotiations on their uh nuclear capabilities. Um those would be two major sources of concern for the market.
06:42 Speaker A
Tim, you know we're talking stocks. I'm also interested to get your your take on the role of commodities in investors' portfolios and which commodities?
07:08 Tim
Well, look, we certainly uh uh uh uh agree with the uh train of thought out there that we're at a year or two into a commodities' uh a secular commodities super cycle. Um gold has had a very nice move, 50% uh up over the last 12 to 18 months. Uh one area that we've spent a lot of time looking at is copper. Uh it has trailed that move significantly. I certainly think that with the uh uh incredible amount of industrial uh uh production that's been committed to take place in the manufacturing sector of the US from uh not only domestic companies, but uh foreign countries around the globe, close to $10 trillion. Copper, although it's been under the weight of the uh uh Japanese spending the the Chinese spending boom kind of hitting a brick wall a number of years ago, it it has to have significant upside from this level just to support all of the uh uh additional uh industrial building that's going to go on in this country and and the uh um electricity demands and just other infrastructure-related power demands that will be required. In addition. And of course, if you want to talk about individual stocks, I mean, the main blue chip in that sector has got to be Freeport Copper. It's certainly been in a downtrend since it reached uh the uh the mid-50s almost a year ago to the date. But I I I think that the stock has recovered very nicely from its lows uh six weeks ago and uh it's kind of poised between the 50 and 200 day moving average. You get a you get a close above that 50 two that 200 day uh right around 41 for more than just a couple of days and and this stock could go back toward the uh toward the high 40s, maybe the $50 level.
11:37 Speaker A
Tim, great to see you, great to have you on the show today. Thanks so much for joining us.
11:54 Tim
Well, thank you so much for having me and uh uh enjoy the rest of the day.
12:06 Speaker A
You too, sir.
