00:00 Speaker A
it's the story of the market right now, Julie, when we think about trying to just explain why the stock market is at record highs, right? Because we just spent five minutes talking about a lot of risks that are out there for both the economy and markets and then you just look at a market that continues to go up and you're sort of asking yourself why? Well, if you read through something like David Costin at Goldman Sachs's note on second quarter earnings, he's calling it one of the great, the quarter has been marked by one of the greatest frequency of earnings beats on record. They're looking at a 25-year period there. They're seeing 60% of companies beating S&P consensus forecast by more than one standard deviation. So, yes, earnings always come in and earnings always beat, right? You sort of lower that bar, they usually come in better than Wall Street expected. They came in significantly better than Wall Street expected and sort of the kicker as we've been thinking about this moving forward is the amount of companies that have been raising their full-year guidance, too. So, Goldman pointing out in this note, 56% of companies raised their full-year 2025 guidance. That was more than double the amount that did that in the first quarter. So what you're seeing is we come into this second quarter, companies have been able to start to understand what the terror structure is going to look like, they're feeling more confident about their business going into the end of this year and into next year, and that's the key part again of sort of the market rally story when we think about all these macro cross currents. What's it mean for profits? And right now, companies are telling you, it's all okay for their corporate profit outlook.
