Hiltzik: Now event organizers have to worry about Trump

Organizers of major sporting events always have a lot to worry about — logistics, transportation, security and weather, to start. The organizers of two major events scheduled to take place in Los Angeles next year and in 2028 would be well advised to worry about one additional factor: Donald Trump.

Trump has made public statements endorsing the Olympics and identifying himself with their successful outcome. L.A. won the 2028 games in 2017, during his first term. In a 2020 meeting with the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee, he claimed to have played a role in securing the games: “From the day I took office,” he said, “I’ve done everything in my power to make sure that L.A. achieved the winning bid.”

As recently as January, just before his inauguration, he delivered another expression of support. “These are America’s Olympics,” he told Casey Wasserman, the chair of the local organizing committee, during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago reported by Axios. “These are more important than ever to L.A. and I’m going to be supportive in every way possible and make them the greatest games.”

But Trump has a habit of withdrawing his favors as abruptly as he bestows them — as onetime associates such as Elon Musk have discovered — and upending his own policies on a whim.

Over just the last week, for example, he ordered immigration authorities to cease their raids on agricultural and hospitality sites, evidently on appeals from his own supporters who cited their need for immigrant laborers. But he reversed himself days later, ordering the raids to resume.

Two administration initiatives in particular could directly affect the World Cup and Olympics. The first is Trump’s crackdown on immigration. Up to now, the policy has been haphazardly applied, through scattershot raids on locations such as Home Depot parking lots.

Immigration agents have been acting as though they have carte blanche to detain people suspected of being in the U.S. illegally, conducting raids that have sometimes swept up American citizens.

Customs and Border Protection and other federal immigration authorities have been accused of detaining foreign visitors and refusing them admission to the U.S., without explanation.

Immigration roundups across the U.S. have instilled fear in immigrant communities, prompting many to stay home from work or school.

The second initiative is Trump’s travel ban, which bars individuals from 12 countries from entering the U.S. Those from seven other countries face restrictions, though not complete bans.

According to a widely-reported memo, Trump is contemplating the addition of 36 more countries to the travel ban. Of those countries, 25 are in Africa, but countries in Asia, the Caribbean and the Pacific are also named.

The memo, according to reports, asserts that the countries on the expanded list lack a credible “government authority to produce reliable identity documents,” keep unreliable criminal records or are beset by “widespread government fraud.” Countries could “mitigate” the U.S. concerns, the memo says, if they’re willing to accept deportees from the U.S.

Although the international lineup for the 2028 Olympics has not been established, every country on both lists sent athletes to the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.

At a news conference last week, Wasserman said the White House understood the need to be “accommodating” on visa issues with those in the Olympic bubble — “It has been the case to date and it will certainly be the case going forward through the games.” He spoke confidently, but that he felt the need to speak about it at all tells the real story.

In 2018, when FIFA, the governing body of international soccer, was judging bids to host the 2026 World Cup, Trump assured FIFA that “all eligible athletes, officials and fans from all countries around the world would be able to enter the United States without discrimination.” But concerns remain that family members of participating athletes might face restrictions on entering the U.S.

Those concerns could hardly be assuaged by a comment from Vice President JD Vance, chair of a government task force overseeing preparations for the World Cup, at a task force meeting attended by FIFA president Gianni Infantino.

Vance said the U.S. wants foreign visitors “to come, we want them to celebrate, we want them to watch the games. But when the time is up, we want them to go home, otherwise they will have to talk to Secretary Noem.”

He was referring to Kristi Noem, secretary of Homeland Security, whose agency has been conducting the immigration raids and border detentions.

Just last week, Customs and Border Protection, a subagency of Homeland Security, stated in a social media post that it would be “suited and booted, ready to provide security for the first round of games” of FIFA’s Club World Cup preliminary tournament. The authority of immigration agents to provide security or conduct civil law enforcement activities is legally uncertain. Homeland Security later deleted the post.

“U.S. Customs and Border Protection is committed to working with our local and federal partners to ensure the FIFA Club World Cup is safe for everyone involved, as we do with every major sporting event,” a Homeland Security spokesperson told me by email. The White House didn’t respond to my request for comment.

There already are signs that Trump’s immigration crackdown is suppressing ticket sales for international soccer games in the U.S. That appears to be the case with an opening game of Club World Cup, scheduled for Saturday between Inter Miami, the Major League Soccer club featuring Lionel Messi as player-captain, and the Egyptian team Al Ahly at Hard Rock Stadium outside Miami.

The cheapest seats for the contest, which are priced according to demand, have fallen from $349 in December to less than $80 last week, the Associated Press reported.

Notwithstanding his statements of support for the Los Angeles Olympics, since taking office in January, Trump’s feelings for L.A. have turned distinctly negative. On June 7, he called in the California National Guard and subsequently mobilized the Marines to quell street protests in downtown L.A. against immigration raids.

Trump stepped up his battle with local authorities on Sunday, when he posted a statement on his Truth Social platform pledging to “expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of Illegal Aliens reside.”

What Amnesty International labels “escalating attacks on human rights and civil freedoms” prompted the organization to urge FIFA to “exert its leverage and demand concrete, legally binding guarantees that human rights won’t be further sacrificed for the sake of the game.” The organization said “the current U.S. administration’s abusive immigration policies, including enforced disappearances under the Alien Enemies Act, travel bans, increased detention, and visa restrictions, threaten the inclusivity and global nature of the World Cup.”

Los Angeles has a lot hanging on successful World Cup events and the Olympics, though it’s hard to pinpoint how much, financially speaking. Projections of economic gains from major sporting events are typically optimistic, euphoric, chimerical or conjectural. The standing estimate for the economic impact for L.A. County from next year’s Cup events is $594 million. That’s based on expectations of 180,000 out-of-town visitors arriving for the eight matches, which include the opening match for the U.S. men’s team.

That estimate, however, comes from the L.A. Sports and Entertainment Commission, which is responsible for attracting major sporting events to the county and might not be inclined to minimize the potential take.

The Olympic gains are even tougher to estimate. My colleagues Thuc Nhi Nguyen and Dakota Smith reported recently that local Olympics organizers have expressed confidence that they’ll reach their goal of $2.5 billion in sponsorship revenue and about as much coming from ticket sales and other commercial income. All told, the organizers say they’ll be able to cover the estimated $7.1 billion in Olympic costs.

The organizers also waved away concerns that foreign fans might be discouraged from coming to the U.S. for the games, since they expect most ticket sales to be domestic.

As my colleague Steve Henson reported in March, Wasserman has assured the International Olympic Committee that “irrespective of politics today, America will be open and accepting to all 209 countries for the Olympics. L.A. is the most diverse city in the history of humanity and we will welcome the people from around the world and give them all a great time.” He said he had made “significant strides” in getting assurances from Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that obtaining visas shouldn’t be a problem.

Are those assurances reliable? Trump’s policymaking record is inauspicious. Whether the product of deliberate policymaking or whim, Trump’s capacity for sabotaging the World Cup and Olympics is vast.

Promoters of major international sporting events always maintain that the games are “nonpartisan” and nonpolitical. That’s true up until the point that they’re not, as was demonstrated when former President Jimmy Carter ordered a boycott of the 1980 Moscow Summer Olympics to protest Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan. Russia retaliated by boycotting the 1984 games (in Los Angeles).

Will Trump’s politics poison the upcoming soccer and Olympic events? It’s not clear at this moment, but the organizers are undoubtedly crossing their fingers.