Here’s why Ethereum could be on the brink of a breakout to $5k

Ethereum is witnessing a renewed wave of accumulation from institutional investors and smart money wallets.

As of writing, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $2,508, representing a gain of over 70% from its year-to-date low. Its market cap stood above $300 billion.

While ETH remains 32% below its 2025 peak, analysts suggest it could be approaching a significant breakout.

According to pseudo-anonymous analyst Crypto GEMs, who has over 422,000 followers on social media, Ethereum appears to have reentered a multi-week parallel channel on the daily chart.

The structure resembles a similar pattern from earlier this year, which preceded an 80% rally within a month. If ETH replicates that trajectory, a move toward the $5,000 level could materialize by year-end.

Technical indicators appear to support this outlook. Ethereum is on the verge of forming a golden cross, with its 50-day simple moving average close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, a historically bullish signal. 

In addition, ETH recently bounced cleanly off its 50-day EMA and is consolidating at the lower boundary of a broadening wedge pattern, a structure that often precedes upward breakouts.

Should bullish momentum continue, the next upside target lies near the $3,500 level, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and serves as a key psychological resistance. 

A confirmed breakout above that level could pave the way for a rally up to $5,000, in line with the analyst’s projections.

Multiple catalysts appear to be aligning in support of this outlook. Spot Ether ETFs have regained traction among institutional players. Data from SoSoValue indicates that these products have seen $860 million in net inflows so far in June, a 52% increase from May.

One of the most notable contributors to this demand is BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, which has accumulated over $750 million worth of ETH since the beginning of June.

BlackRock has not sold any of its holdings during this accumulation phase, which is a sign of strong institutional conviction in Ethereum’s long-term value.

Further, large holders controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have ramped up accumulation, marking the highest net position increase in months despite market turbulence.

On-chain signals also reinforce the bullish sentiment. Data from Santiment shows that new wallet creation on the Ethereum network has surged, with between 800,000 and 1 million new addresses being created weekly. 

This marks a notable rise compared to the 560,000–670,000 range seen during the same period last year. Santiment attributes this growth to improved network utility and broader ecosystem engagement.

All this could continue to strengthen Ethereum’s underlying market structure, paving the way for a potential breakout.