Fed and Bank of England interest rates, UK inflation, FedEx, Barratt Redrow and Next

The US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision is set to be the major focus for investors in the coming week, with a number of companies also due to report.

The Fed is widely expected to announce its first rate cut of the year on Wednesday, 17 September, while the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep rates on hold at its policy decision meeting on Thursday.

The BoE's decision will come a day after the latest UK inflation reading, which central bankers will be looking at closely as consumer prices have continued to tick higher in recent months.

In terms of earnings, investors will be looking at the latest results from delivery giant FedEx (FDX) for any commentary around the impact of US president Donald Trump recently ending the de minimis exemption on shipments of lower-value goods.

On the London market, housebuilder Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) is due to report its full-year results, as the sector remains under pressure amid economic uncertainty.

A stronger performer on the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) this year has been retailer Next (NXT.L), which is scheduled to report half-year results on Thursday.

Here's more detail on what to look out for:

Ahead of the Fed's latest interest rate decision, data released on Thursday showed that the US economy faces both a weakening job market and hotter inflation.

Weekly jobless claims rose to 263,000, which was much more than the 235,000 expected and was the most in nearly four years.

Meanwhile, the latest consumer price index (CPI) report showed inflation remained sticky last month, with the annual headline rate rising to 2.9%, compared with 2.7% in July. Month over month, prices rose 0.4% compared to July's 0.2% increase, an uptick compared to economists' expectations of a 0.3% monthly gain.

Both sets of data are watched closely by central bankers, as they use interest rates to try to keep inflation under control, while also aiming to avoid a material slowdown in the labour market.

Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said that the Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25% for the first time this year on Wednesday, “with the potential for further rate cuts ahead”. This would take the rate range to 4% to 4.25%, down from 4.25% to 4.5%.

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“The door is also ajar for a greater half a percentage point reduction next week,” she said, but added that this is looking less likely after August's above-target CPI reading.

“The central bank is facing a complex conundrum with signs of a weakening labour market on the one hand versus concerns about tariff fuelled inflation on the other,” said Scholar. “As Fed Chair Jay Powell said at Jackson Hole, ‘in the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside'.”

Across the Atlantic, Scholar said that the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday at 4%, after announcing a cut in August.

Before its meeting, she said that central bankers would be keeping an eye on unemployment and inflation figures, due out on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

“Inflation is running much hotter than the central bank would like, raising the prospect of higher for longer interest rates,” said Scholar.

“December could be when the central bank next cuts rates, after clarity around taxes and spending in provided by the autumn budget in November,” she added.

“It is a busy week for other central banks around the world too including the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the South African Reserve Bank and the Central Bank of Brazil.”

UK inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months in July, according to data released last month, amid higher food prices and transport costs.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the annual rate as measured by the CPI climbed to an unexpected 3.8% in July, up from 3.6% in June.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Thursday that “recent developments mean that we now think the hump in inflation will be a little higher than the [BoE]”.

Capital Economics expects CPI to come in at 3.9% in August versus a BoE forecast of 3.8%. The macroeconomics firm then forecasts that September's CPI, which is due out next month, will rise to 4.2% versus BoE expectations of 4%.

“Our forecasts suggest the Bank will become more worried about inflation by [its meeting on] 6 November,” said Dales.

“We still believe that the weak labour market will reduce wage growth and inflation by more than most forecasters and the Bank expect,” he said. “And we think that will be becoming clear early next year.”

“That’s why we expect the Bank to resume cutting rates in February,” Dales added. “Our forecast that rates will be cut to 3.00% next year envisages two more 25 basis points cuts than investors expect.”

At the end of July, Trump signed an executive order ending a global exemption on duties of imports of goods valued at $800 or less.

Trump had already ended the de minimis exemption on imports of Chinese goods on 2 May, but this came into effect for the rest of the world on 29 August.

In a note published on Thursday, Bank of America (BAC) analysts lowered their lowered their ratings on delivery firms UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) to “underperform” from “neutral” and to “neutral” from “buy” respectively. The analysts said that this came as they accounted for “increased pressure on volume and costs, following our recent look at de minimis impacts to airfreight carriers”.

BofA's analysts pointed out that nearly four million packages per day were moving under the US de minimis exemptions.

They said that international priority & economy (export) packages represent 17% of FedEx's revenues and 16% of UPS (UPS) revenues – excluding domestic operations in international markets – or approximately 1.1 million packages a day of FedEx's (FDX) 17 million average daily packages and around 1.7 million packages per day of UPS's 20 million average daily packages.

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“The combined 2.8 million are not all de minimis, but a sizeable portion of the 4 million daily de minimis shipments,” the analysts said. “The removal of the de minimis exemption is expected to result in a muted air peak season in '25 as the tight peak markets in '23/'24 were driven by air demand from Chinese e-commerce players using the de minimis loop-hole.”

BofA analysts lowered their estimates on FedEx's (FDX) earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter to $3.56 from a previous forecast of $3.80, as well as EPS estimates for the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years.

In the fourth quarter, FedEx (FDX) reported diluted EPS of $6.88, which was up from $5.94 for the same period in 2024. Revenue came in at $22.2bn (£16.39bn) for the fourth quarter, which was slightly higher than the $22.1bn the year prior.

For the first quarter, FedEx (FDX) has guided to flat to 2% revenue growth year-on-year. The company guided to diluted EPS of of $2.90 to $3.50, and $3.40 to $4.00 after excluding costs related to business optimisation initiatives and the planned spin-off of its FedEx Freight business.

Shares in FedEx (FDX) are trading nearly 19% in the red year-to-date.

Shares in Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) are down more than 16% year-to-date, lingering near their lowest point since late 2022.

David Thomas, CEO of Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L), noted in a trading update in July that the company had faced a “challenging market backdrop” this year. He said that “demand during the year has been impacted by consumer caution and mortgage rates not falling as quickly as hoped”, but added that there remained long-term structural under-supply of housing in the country.

In the trading update, which gave investors a glimpse into what to expect in the final full-year results, the housebuilder said it had delivered total home completions of 16,565 in the 2025 fiscal year, which was down from an aggregated comparable of 17,972 in 2024.

Looking ahead, Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) anticipated total home completions in the range of 17,200 to 17,800 for the 2026 fiscal year.

Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Barratt Redrow's (BTRW.L) full-year results next week shouldn’t bring too many surprises, with the company already flagging underlying pre-tax profits of around £583m ($789m).”

“Additional building safety charges tied to legacy properties are expected to hold back profit growth in the new year,” he said. “Barratt’s guidance points to around £640m in pre-tax profits, up nearly 10%.”

“Despite these challenges, Barratt Redrow (BTRW.L) remains in a strong financial position, supported by a £2.9bn order book and £0.8bn in net cash,” Chiekrie added. “The Redrow integration has already generated £69m in cost savings, with more expected as overlapping operations are streamlined.”

Shares in UK retailer Next (NXT.L) are up more than 27% year-to-date, thanks to a run of better-than-expected results, powering the stock to an all-time high in June.

A trading statement at the end of July gave investors as to what to expect from the half-year results, as Next (NXT.L) said total full-price sales in the first six months of the year grew by 10.9%.

Next (NXT.L) said that sales in the second quarter over-performed both in the UK and overseas. As a result, the retailer upped its guidance for full price sales in the second half of the year from 3.5% to 4.5%, adding a further £27m to its forecast.

The increase in second quarter sales, along with the increased guidance for the second half, led Next (NXT.L) to raise its full-year guidance for profit before tax by £25m to £1.105bn.

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AJ Bell's (AJB.L) investment experts Russ Mould, Danni Hewson and Dan Coatsworth said: “If there is any change to guidance for full-price sales and profit, analysts and shareholders will look to the divisional mix of sales to find its source, relative to the guidance given by [CEO] Lord Wolfson back in July.”

“Attention will then switch to those cash returns, where the interim dividend was a 75p in the first half a year ago,” they said. “Analysts expect 80p a share for the first-half distribution this time.”

“After the shares’ strong run into summer, Next (NXT.L) paused its share buyback programme, as management felt buybacks no longer represented an effective allocation of capital,” they said.

“However, the retailer recommenced its purchases after July’s upgrade to its full-year earnings guidance since that, combined with the share price pullback, meant the company was able to justify buybacks according to its criteria of an 8% equivalent rate of return (ERR), as calculated by dividing forecast net profits by the prevailing stock market capitalisation.”

Monday 15 September

Knights Group (KGH.L)

S4 Capital (SFOR.L)

Bango (BGO.L)

HgCapital Trust (HGT.L)

Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)

Tuesday 16 September

MJ Gleeson (GLE.L)

Springfield Properties (SPR.L)

Personal Group (PGH.L)

Headlam (HEAD.L)

Corero Network Security (CNS.L)