00:00 Josh Lipton
US stocks surging post a comeback from Friday's losses. The move higher comes amid improved prospects for a US-EU trade agreement. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joining us now with the trading day takeaways.
00:15 Jared Blikre
Thank you, Josh. With another trading day detont, we got a risk-on market. That has been the theme of the day. And I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this. I just want to show you the smattering of markets that just did really well today. Most of these markets having their best day in at least two weeks. Arc Innovation Fund, number one. So, a lot of those smaller issues, although Tesla, one of the MAG 7 is front and center there. And then, speaking of Tesla, the MAG 7 ETF MAGS. Then, we got SOX, that's uh chip stocks. Then, we got New York Fang. Then, small caps. Then, defense and aerospace. Then, regional banks. The Qs. You get the picture here. Even retail up over 2%. So, a broad swath of equities doing pretty well today. And I had the chance to talk to, and this is on the back of the 30-year falling back below 5% today, and I think that was a key development because anytime the 30-year is punched north of 5% or threaten that, we've had some problems. And I did have the chance to talk to John Har last week on stocks and translation about, you know, the bond market and how it's kind of acting differently over the last few years than the prior 40. Here's what he had to say.
02:00 John Har
After that 2022 bond bear market, uh 2023 was not a particularly good year for bonds either. A lot of them were calling for things to reverse in 2024. And that is a common strategy. You just say, hey look, mean reversion. Mean reversion loves it. Everyone loves mean reversion. It works well sometimes. It did not work well in 2024. 2024 was not a good year for bonds.
02:44 Jared Blikre
So I think the bottom line for investors here, we got a new playbook that we got to realize and structurally higher rates are probably going to be a part of it, and we got to watch the 30-year. We got a bunch of auctions this week. We had the two today, we got the five and the seven coming up Wednesday, Thursday.
03:05 Josh Lipton
Back to that risk-on thesis. The the bullishness we saw today, uh pretty broad-based, correct?
03:15 Jared Blikre
You know, that was the case, and I was looking at the Dow markets. So, if you take a look at the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports, and on the Yahoo Finance site, that is caret DJI and caret DJT. You got to put the caret there because that's not Donald J. Trump. Uh the Dow Transports have been around since 1886. This is a year-to-date chart. And look, the Dow, by the way, almost positive on the year, you can see. Still just slightly underwater. But here are the Transports, down 6.7%. But I'm going to put this chart on a basis uh from the April 8th low. And so that's from the bottom. You can see the Transports have been outperforming here. I'm going to give you a really quick look at today's heat map in terms of the Dow Industrials. Here's what they did. Ta-da! Just a few uh blights, Boeing and United Health. Nothing new there. And then here are the Transports. Everything in the green, led by Uber, the biggest one in terms of market cap. United Airlines one of the point winners up almost 5%.
04:43 Josh Lipton
The dollar up today. What was behind that?
04:48 Jared Blikre
Yeah, um really interesting. I think the European trade detente, uh at least postponement of any additional tariffs, that had a big uh deal with the dollar being up today. And this is a respite, and part of that, part of my concern has been that the US, that the world has been saying, sell dollars at any cost. Get rid of all US assets. But that was a story a month ago, uh two months ago. That has not been the story recently with this huge run-up since uh April 8th. But with the dollar up today, guess what that weighs on. And that's going to be commodities. So I'm going to show you real quickly what's been happening in commodity land today. You know, gold, we were talking about that several days last week, but it was one of the leaders to the downside today. Here, I'm just going to tap that. GC equals F down almost 2%. So we haven't seen a big decline in gold in a while. But here's the year-to-date chart. This still looks pretty bullish to me. I thought this was an M top. No, we've just got a bull flag right here, and we're just kind of zigzagging down. Uh need to find a catalyst to see if we can move up again. 3,500 is a big round number there. But today, the story in commodities is for the most part, they were sold.
06:22 Josh Lipton
Should we do a final peek at Bitcoin? Yeah.
06:25 Jared Blikre
Yes, sir. Uh let's just do that real quick because 110,000 has been kind of a sticking point. Um and we, if you look at the five day, you can see the record highs from 111, 112,000 last week, but we are right there. Here's the year to date. Now, I'll show you how bullish this chart looks after having eclipsed these highs from earlier in the year. So we'll see. Can Bitcoin finally lead equities to new highs as well? Stay tuned.
07:02 Josh Lipton
Stay tuned. Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it.
