Another week in Washington has seen more promises from the Trump administration of imminent trade deals, with a fresh suggestion Monday of a possible pact with India “in the not-too-distant future.”
But the sheer volume of these claims — even as progress is evident in some cases — has dampened the reaction from markets and trade watchers after months of similar promises from both President Trump and his team have turned out to be premature at the very least.
It was nearly seven weeks ago when Trump commented on the talks ahead, suggesting that “over the next three or four weeks I think maybe the whole thing could be concluded.”
It was one of many such promises, perhaps most notoriously a boast from trade adviser Peter Navarro on NBC in April that “we've got 90 deals in 90 days possibly pending here.”
So far, only one limited deal has been announced in the more than 50 days since Navarro's comment, as promises have come at a steadier pace than there is evidence of progress.
The talks have seen some steps forward, such as that pact with the UK on some goods and a slashing of tariffs on China for 90 days, but also with plenty of backsliding.
Just this week, renewed China tensions raised the stakes for a coming call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and led to an apparent slowing of other talks as well.
“There's a real problem, which is that there are in fact no genuine deals to be had,” Paul Krugman said in a Yahoo Finance appearance on Tuesday.
The Nobel laureate in economics and longtime Trump critic noted that many other countries have lower tariff rates, and therefore the real question is “whether other countries can and will devise face-saving stuff that Trump can call a victory and lead him to basically call off the dogs.”
Krugman is skeptical, saying attention to the notion of a “TACO trade” — which suggests Trump often chickens out on tariffs — could make it harder for the president to walk back yet another tariff promise.
Meanwhile, Trump's team often argues that the path of trade talks so far has essentially been part of the plan, suggesting that deals will soon line up and that Trump will “dictate” tariffs if not.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday that Trump's varied threats have brought negotiators such as Europe to the table and that the administration remains “hopeful and optimistic” that it can reach deals soon.
A key deal promiser in recent days — even as his colleagues have been more circumspect — is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
