- Global PC shipments rose in Q2 2025, but the reason isn’t consumer confidence
- Windows 10’s looming end is forcing businesses into urgent PC upgrade cycles
- Consumer spending on personal devices has stalled, with upgrades likely delayed into 2026
The global PC market saw shipments rise in the second quarter of 2025, but the growth appears tied more to short-term business upgrades and software deadlines than to renewed consumer demand.
New figures from Canalys claim global shipments of desktops, notebooks, and workstation PCs climbed 7.4% year-on-year to reach 67.6 million units.
Yet, the story behind this growth reveals a market shaped more by operating system lifecycles and trade policy than by buyer confidence.
Temporary drivers behind the surge
The analyst firm primarily believes the approaching Windows 10 end of life deadline in October 2025 is the main factor driving this surge.
“Despite global uncertainty, the Windows 10 end of support deadline this October is providing essential market stability, but is affecting consumer and commercial segments differently,” said Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Canalys.
Business PC deployments have gained momentum, while consumer demand has stalled, as many individuals appear hesitant to spend amid wider economic volatility, pushing personal device upgrades into 2026.
That delay could later coincide with the retirement of many pandemic-era devices, setting up a potential consumer bump next year.
“The commercial refresh cycle is providing vital momentum for the market,” Jessop explained, pointing to a recent poll which found more than half of channel partners expect their PC business to grow in the second half of 2025, with nearly a third projecting growth over 10%.
This emphasis on business laptop and desktop upgrades, rather than organic consumer demand, suggests the gains may not be sustainable beyond the Windows 10 deadline.
The vendor landscape shows that Lenovo retained the top position with 17.0 million units shipped, up 15.2% from a year earlier.
HP followed with 14.1 million units, marking a modest 3.2% rise, while Dell saw a 3.0% decline.
Apple posted the strongest growth, up 21.3% to 6.4 million units, and Asus wasn’t far behind with an 18.4% increase.
A 9% rise in desktop shipments and a 7% increase in notebooks, including workstation PCs, also helped boost the market.
In addition to Windows 10 and the commercial refresh cycle, growing tension surrounding global trade policy, particularly involving US tariffs, is reshaping the PC supply chain.
“The Trump administration’s evolving tariff policies continue to reshape global PC supply chains while casting uncertainty over market recovery,” said Ben Yeh, Principal Analyst at Canalys.
Yeh warned that even though PCs remain exempt from tariffs for now, the situation is murky.
“What began as straightforward China avoidance has evolved into a complex regulatory maze.”
With the US-Vietnam trade agreement introducing new tariffs, 20% on Vietnamese goods and up to 40% on items deemed transhipped, manufacturers may find supply chain shifts are no longer a viable way to manage cost pressures.
Overall, while the numbers look strong, the underlying drivers of this growth are temporary and heavily dependent on a fixed software lifecycle and fragile trade agreements.
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