Boeing in Talks to Sell as Many as 500 Planes to China

(Bloomberg) — Boeing Co. (BA) is heading closer toward finalizing a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter, a transaction that would end a sales drought that stretches back to US President Donald Trump’s last visit in 2017.

The two sides are still hammering out terms of the complex aircraft sale, including the types and volume of jet models and delivery timetables, according to one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential matters.

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The mega sale to China, years in the making, is contingent on the two nations defusing the trade hostilities that hark back to Trump’s first term in office — and could still fall apart, they said.

A Boeing Co. 737 aircraft, manufactured for Air China Ltd., in Seattle, Washington.Photographer: David Ryder/Bloomberg

Chinese officials have already started consulting domestic airlines about how many Boeing aircraft they’ll need, the people said. The transaction taking shape is similar in scope to the order for as many as 500 jets that China’s central planners have struck with Airbus SE (AIR.PA), but haven’t yet announced, they added.

The Boeing order is expected to be the centerpiece of a trade agreement that would benefit both Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, the culmination of long-running and sometimes contentious negotiations. The nation’s leaders were close to a similar announcement in 2023, but then-President Joe Biden and Xi left a San Francisco summit without consummating an aircraft sale.

Complicating matters for Boeing is a leadership void in China. Alvin Liu, its top executive in China and a fluent Mandarin-speaker with extensive government contacts, left the company in recent weeks. Carol Shen has been named interim president of Boeing China, said people familiar with the matter.

Boeing declined to comment on any potential deal or management changes.

Shares of the US planemaker advanced less than 1% in New York on Thursday following Bloomberg’s report, as most members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined. The stock had risen 27% this year amid a turnaround under Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg.

Aircraft orders for Boeing have figured large in US diplomacy since Trump returned to the White House in January, with nations touting new, tentative and existing deals for airplanes, which are as expensive as skyscrapers, to narrow trade imbalances with the US.

The US and China have engaged in several rounds of talks since de-escalating tit-for-tat tariffs that soared to as high as 145%, but have yet to reach a final trade deal. Earlier in the summer, Xi, in a phone call, invited Trump to China at an unspecified date. One opportunity for the pair to meet is in late October, ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.

For China, the deal would secure aircraft delivery slots that are hard to come by at both Boeing and Airbus, which are largely sold out into the 2030s. The world’s second largest aviation market is expected to more than double its commercial fleet to 9,755 airplanes over the next 20 years, by Boeing’s estimation, far more than China’s homegrown planemaker Comac could manufacture.

While Boeing slots are scarce, the company likely has some flexibility in its delivery schedule to accommodate strategic customers, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu said in a research note.

The country’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, recently sought input from Chinese carriers about how many jets they want, one of the people said. Talks centered on the 737 Max series of aircraft, Boeing’s popular single-aisle jet, in a sign Beijing is laying the groundwork for a major order.

Boeing’s last Chinese deal was unveiled in November 2017 during Trump’s first state visit to China. The deal amounted to orders and commitments for 300 single-aisle and twin-aisle planes valued at $37 billion at the time.

The next year, Boeing’s China deliveries peaked, when a quarter of its jets ended up in the mainland. Airbus has dominated sales and deliveries to China since 2019, when the nation’s regulators were the first to ground the 737 Max after two fatal accidents.

Boeing has notched only 30 orders with Chinese carriers and leasing companies since the start of 2019, according to the company’s website. In an interview with Bloomberg in January, CEO Ortberg was optimistic that years of talks with Beijing would finally pay off.

“We certainly hope that there’s an opportunity for some additional orders in the next year with China,” he said.

—With assistance from Jenni Marsh.

(Updates with Jefferies comment in 12th paragraph)