Bitcoin weakens, Ethereum rises — is altcoin season here?

Ethereum’s rising market share, regulatory clarity, and whale activity signal a possible shift, as Bitcoin dominance slides and institutional interest shifts.

According to insights shared by QCP Capital on X on July 21, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance has slipped from 64% to 60%, while Ethereum’s (ETH) share of the total crypto market has climbed from 9.7% to 11.6%. These shifts are accompanied by a rise in institutional capital flows and altcoin activity, raising the question of whether altcoin season is back.

Altcoin season, often referred to as “altseason,” describes a phase when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin across key performance and market structure metrics. As per QCP’s analysis, multiple altcoin season indexes have surged past the 50 mark across major data providers, levels not seen since December 2024. Historically, readings above 75 indicate a full altseason.

Ethereum is leading the charge. Per QCP Capital, ETH perpetual open interest jumped from under $18 billion to over $28 billion in just one week. That $10 billion increase is notable not only for its scale but also for its composition. “Institutions appear to be driving the move, not retail,” the firm wrote.

Part of this shift is being driven by policy. The GENIUS Act was signed into law by U.S. President Donald Trump on July 19. Approved by the House on July 17, the law establishes a formal regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins that requires full reserve backing and regular audits.

Ethereum and other layer-1 blockchains such as Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP), which host major stablecoin protocols, are now in the spotlight. The move has had immediate market impacts.

Spot ETH exchange-traded fund inflows, tracked by Farside Investors, outpaced those of Bitcoin for two consecutive trading days last week, indicating rising institutional demand. The SEC’s impending approval of staked ETH ETFs may accelerate this trend and establish Ethereum as a regulatory-compliant yield-bearing asset for fund managers.

Additionally, the options markets appear to be pricing in the upside. The ETH-26SEP25-3400/3800 and ETH-26DEC25-3500/4500 call spread build-up was highlighted by QCP as evidence of strong positioning for Q4 upside.

Meanwhile, both spot buying and a rebound in DeFi and smart contract activity are contributing to Ethereum’s July surge, which has seen the cryptocurrency rise more than 50% so far this month.

This trend is supported by Santiment’s on-chain data. According to the analytics firm’s July 22 X post, Ethereum wallet addresses with more than 10,000 ETH rose by 45 (+4.0%) over the previous week, while Bitcoin wallet addresses with more than 1,000 BTC fell by 39 (-1.8%).

This change in the behavior of large holders indicates that the capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum is already in progress. Santiment also noted that social sentiment across X, Reddit, and Telegram has shifted aggressively toward altcoins after Bitcoin’s recent all-time high.

Ethereum is now the subject of frequent $4,000+ price calls. Whether this becomes a full-fledged altseason will depend on sustained ETF flows, legislative clarity, and market confirmation, but the early signals are already in play.