Bitcoin may have no more than 27% upside left in this cycle before entering a downtrend, according to Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg.
“I think there is a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year,” McClurg said during a CNBC interview on Friday. At the time of publication, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $117,867, meaning a move into that range would represent gains of 19% to 27%, according to CoinMarketCap.
McClurg is fearful of the economy right now
McClurg warned of a broader economic bear market ahead, saying he isn’t confident in the macroeconomic outlook.
“I don’t like the economic standing at all right now,” he said, arguing that the US Federal Reserve should have already cut rates at its last two meetings. He expects rate cuts to come in both September and October. Similarly, market participants are pricing in a 92.5% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, according to the CME Watch Tool.
McClurg attributed the majority of Bitcoin’s recent price action to spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows and treasury firm purchases. “That’s what is really driving price,” he said.
“We’re seeing large allocations coming in, not just from small institutions but from large sovereign wealth funds, we’re seeing insurance companies asking questions,” he explained.
Michael Saylor has an entirely different forecast
While McClurg expects treasury firm buying to reach a peak in the coming months, he acknowledged that their impact has been significant.
Related: Bitcoin's new record high has traders asking: Did BTC price top at $124K?
Other Bitcoin advocates disagree with the idea of another bear market. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor said during an interview on June 11 that “Winter is not coming back.”
“We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million,” Saylor said.
Meanwhile, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said he doesn’t expect the bull market to slow down anytime soon.
“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said in an X video on July 26. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan added.
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