Bitcoin’s recent price action may still be tracking its historic four-year halving cycle, despite some market predictions that increasing institutional interest will break the pattern, according to onchain analytics firm Glassnode.
“From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action also echoes prior patterns,” Glassnode said in a markets report on Wednesday.
Bitcoin shows signs of cool off
Glassnode said several factors suggest that the Bitcoin (BTC) cycle may be further along than the market assumes.
Profit-taking among long-term holders — those holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days — is now “comparable to past euphoric phases, reinforcing the impression of a market late in its cycle,” it said.
Glassnode also pointed to weakening demand, with capital inflows into Bitcoin “showing signs of fatigue.” Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have posted outflows of about $975 million over the past four trading days, according to Farside Investors.
Since Bitcoin reached a new high of $124,128 on Aug. 14, the asset has dropped 8.3% to $113,940 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Glassnode said the drop in demand has pushed traders toward riskier bets on volatility.
“This slowing appetite has coincided with a surge in speculative positioning, as open interest across major altcoins briefly reached a record high of $60B before correcting with a -$2.5B decline,” it said.
If Bitcoin continues to follow its typical cycle, its highs may arrive as early as October, Glassnode said, adding that in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, its peak cycle highs were reached just two or three months beyond “where we currently stand when measured from the cycle low.”
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Crypto analyst Rekt Capital said in early July that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October, or 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
Several executives say four-year cycle is over
Not all agree that Bitcoin is still following a four-year cycle, as some industry figures argue that the growing number of public treasuries buying Bitcoin and rising demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs may lead to the cycle playing out differently.
On Aug. 10, author and investor Jason Williams said that the top 100 treasury companies hold almost 1 million Bitcoin, suggesting this cycle is different and the four-year cycle isn’t over yet. BitcoinTreasuries.NET data shows publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies hold about $112.17 billion worth of Bitcoin.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in late July that the Bitcoin cycle “is dead” and Bitcoin will likely see an “up year” in 2026.
Hougan said he expects this cycle’s timeline to be different because the halving cycle matters less each time, and the interest rate cycle is becoming more favorable for crypto.
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