00:00 Josh
US stocks sink after President Trump's tariff hikes, and the July jobs report shows signs of a labor market slowdown. Here with the Trading Day takeaways, we've got Yahoo Finance's very own Jared Blikre. Jared.
00:10 Jared Blikre
Thank you, Josh. There's no way other way to put it: It is bad news, and bad news means bad news today. And so let's take a look at the YFi Interactive, and we can just kind of game out what happened in the indices along with some of the bond market and just about everything else. Here's the Dow. You can see uh it was already down today, took another uh took another leg down from uh close yesterday to open today. Here's the NASDAQ, down about 2.24%, but I think some of the really interesting moves here are not only in the US dollar, and we'll take a look at that real quickly. Again, a two-day view. You can see a big drop here that ended that six-day streak that I've been talking about, but the bond market, and let's do gold first. We can see a nice little pop there. So what does this all mean? Because we're seeing the 10-year T-note drop 14 basis points. We haven't had a move since that since right around Liberation Day. So we've got investors piling into bonds, especially the long end, but also in the two-year. We're having some record setting days, and we saw gold pop up. This is all about the Fed or markets pricing in more Fed rate cuts, and not in a good way because a lot of people think, “Oh, Fed rate cuts. That must be something good for the market.” But Joe Bruce Wallace was here earlier and he very put he put it very succinctly. If the economy needs those job cuts and they need them badly, well, that's going to be a problem, and I think we're seeing that here in the 13-week T-bill rate. Let me just show you from one day to the next, it usually doesn't move this much. Five basis points is a lot for this instrument to move. It tracks a very short end of the curve. That is where the Fed operates on.
03:01 Josh
Any evidence of hot money flows this week?
03:04 Jared Blikre
Yeah, guess what? IPOs back on the stove. We'll see what happens uh if stocks continue to roll over here, but for the time being, I mean Figma was just a huge event yesterday. It took until 2:00 p.m. for this stock to finally open, and when it did, uh it was a multiple of the $33 IPO price. You can see over the last two days, well that doesn't look right. Let's try this calculation. There we go, 269.7%, hit a high today of something in the 130s. So that was just an incredible move off of that. And I actually had the uh chance to speak with a VC, that's venture capital investor, Brianna Samuels, had her back on ‘Stocks and Translation,' and she had this to say about the uh about the uh venture capital market and IPOs.
04:37 Brianna Samuels
So everything when you think of valuation is connected, and this is like one of the things that is giving us some hope and optimism overall in the private capital markets. When you look at the first half of this year so far, we are seeing an increase in the US in pre-money valuations, especially on the earlier stage side of venture capital with the only exception of the category of Series D startups, maybe not seeing that big of an increase so far.
05:25 Jared Blikre
So I found that really interesting. So we are seeing some more activity on the very early stage inventor investors. She said in series D, which is later stage companies before they go public, and maybe a lot of them right before they go public investors just not as interested in those, but the pipeline has got a little bit more money, looks like it's in better shape than it was last year. There was a huge fallout after that '22 uh bear market. So where do we go from here?
06:08 Josh
Where do we? How about other speculative areas of the market? Where do we go?
06:14 Jared Blikre
Crypto! Crypto! It's right there on the screen. It was there the whole time. All right. Crypto also took a risk market dive today, and let's check out what's happening in Bitcoin. This is 2.54%. This is over the last 24 hours. Let me just show you the five days basically since Sunday. So we were in a trading range, and let me do this. I'm going to show you a one-month chart, and this will show this uh we'll do a three-month chart. Uh what I want to show here is that we were in this tight consolidation range. From that range, we have broken down. Is it catastrophic? No. Uh I was very encouraged by the pro-crypto comments from SEC chair uh Atkins today, and we just had Jennifer Schonberger interviewing him. I thought it was very telling that the SEC is getting so ramped up in this, and it's going to take years for them to hash out a lot of the regulations that came that will come into effect because of the Genius effect uh Genius Act, uh but nevertheless, crypto is going to get a huge bid long term. Short term, we have broken down there. That was Bitcoin. Let's take a look at Ether. Ether has also broken down, and I was also looking at competitor Solana. Uh Solana is a little bit of a different formation, but it has now fallen back into a prior trading range. So for everybody who is excited about Bitcoin rocketing to 150, 100 to or 200,000 or even higher, looks like that's going to have to wait a little bit.
08:18 Josh
What's on your radar this weekend?
08:21 Jared Blikre
You know, I I will be watching crypto a little bit, but I'm not going to be worried as much. Um you know, I think that the stocks are in a really interesting position right here. I'm not going to call a top, but I am a little bit concerned that uh the market is pricing in additional Fed rate cuts that might actually be very necessary.
08:46 Josh
All right. Thank you, my friend. Appreciate it.
