00:00 Speaker A
US stocks closed the training session a little changed as Wall Street seeks clarity on Ukraine talks and the Fed's rate cut path. Here with the trading day takeaways, we've got Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre. Jared?
00:13 Jared Blikre
Well, thank you. We got to talk about what's going on in August and some days, you just don't see a lot of action in the major indices. That's what we got today. Don't
00:20 Speaker A
You said listless because that's how one strategist, he said listless.
00:23 Jared Blikre
Listless doldrums, you know, look at this Dow down 34 points. I mean, this isn't 1980. 34 points is nothing guys. Nasdaq composite up 6.8, S&P 500 barely, almost flat lined right there. Uh so where are we seeing some of the action? You have to go into specific stocks. But I keep saying that when you have a boring bull market, that's what investors actually should hope for because that's when you make the most returns consistently day after day. You don't have to keep your my your eye on the market at all times. Here's what happened in the sector land. XY, that was a great. It doesn't have, you don't have to know what this is, but the greatest performing sector was only up 4/10, didn't get anything to the downside of 1%. I did highlight at the close some interesting sectors that have kind of revived recently or maybe industry groups I should say, clean energy. This is because of some initiatives by President Trump, not as bad as people had feared and a very similar reaction happening in the cannabis space. And we've seen this perk up recently and these are double digit movers a lot of days, just because they've so been so beaten down uh over the last few years. I'll show you a chart of Tilray. Let's do a max real quick and you can see um that is from the upper left to the lower right if you exclude uh just a few bars are there at the uh lower left. So basically down 96%. So that kind of tells you the story of where we are. I got to get into cannabis and solar to find where the action is.
02:20 Speaker A
And what and volatility by the way on the way, is that
02:24 Jared Blikre
you know, it depends on where you look because bond volatility has been cratering, but we do have stock volatility maybe picking up. And so let's get to the VIX because I love talking about volatility here. That's always interesting to do. And we'll actually start with the move index. I was talking about bond market volatility and that's what the move index is and there we go. And I'll put a year to date chart on. And you can see we had this spike up. This was around liberation day. That's also when the VIX spiked up. This is just showing the bond market volatility is dropping. That's a very bullish thing uh in general for risk assets and you'll see this is the lowest point on the year and I think uh let's go back three years. I think it's the lowest point in three years. So uh very low uh volatility in the bond market right now. Conversely, what's happening in the VIX? Well, it's still pretty uh low. This is a year to date chart. You'll remember the other one looked fairly similar. We're not quite at the lows of the year. Uh but if I do put on a five day chart, you can see we inflected up a little bit on Friday. We're still up a little bit uh from those prior levels that we saw last week. And if you look at the VIX of the VIX, that is the uh third or fourth derivative of uh movement in the S&P 500 stocks, something like that. Um that is more elevated right now. But I do want to show a chart that I last showed last week and this is the expected path of VIX volatility uh throughout the year. So this white line goes from January through December and this green line is what has happened so far this year. This is a huge aberration. That liberation day, nobody saw that coming. History can't account for that. But what you want to concentrate on is right now, from basically August into the end of October, that's when volatility tends to rise. And so that means we have the potential in August, late August, September, October to see some more market movements. And when we do, you know, we're not going to be uh we're not going to be saying we wish for those boring bull markets, maybe we will.
05:23 Speaker A
Finally, it's it's Monday. Should we talk crypto?
05:28 Jared Blikre
Yeah, let's talk crypto because crypto whiff. Couldn't find any major headlines or market moving news, but sometimes crypto just does this. I'm going to start with uh some charts of Bitcoin and just kind of show you the price action here because Bitcoin and some of the other markets in crypto have done something that they tend to do quite a bit, which is to fake traders out. And let's put a year to date with some candlesticks there. So you can see just a few days ago, we peaked above these prior highs right there. That sucked in new traders and then we had a big down day and in fact, if I put a 10 day, you can see how big uh that was. This caused some pain and now we've just been moving lower, not to say that the trend is going to go lower from here, but just to say that the uh crypto in general can be a very tricky market and this is something we've played out uh time and time again. I do want to show you this, Bitcoin versus Nasdaq 100. We've been seeing uh very tight correlation between these risk markets and just want to show you that the QQQ, this is Nasdaq 100, pretty close to record highs. Uh we've seen Bitcoin diverge a little bit. So it's off of its high more than Nasdaq 100. And here's something I just noticed this uh a few minutes ago, Bitcoin versus micro strategy or is just strategy. Um this strategy tends to be a levered play on Bitcoin and you can see it was trading at a multiple at these highs here. It has come back down and met Bitcoin. When it's done this before and traded under Bitcoin over long periods of time, that is an indication that the crypto cycle has been rolling over. Not to say that we're at the end here of Bitcoin's bullishness, but I will be watching this very closely in the days to come.
07:49 Speaker A
Thank you, buddy. Appreciate it.
