There’s no need to pull the emergency parachute and sell all your real estate before prices fall further—at least in most parts of the country.
According to a new report from real estate brokerage and listing site Redfin, almost 6% of today’s homeowners are at risk of losing money if they put their property on the market. That’s nothing to get too upset about, as it’s a historically low number, well below pre-pandemic averages, even if it’s up from 4.4% a year ago.
Condos Have Lost Their Appeal in Many Places
However, location plays a pivotal role in determining whether your home’s value has increased or decreased. In San Francisco, for example, there’s a 20% chance that your home has declined in value since you purchased it. In contrast, in Providence, Rhode Island, the chances are virtually zero.
Additionally, condos have a higher risk of declining in value compared to single-family homes. In Sunbelt regions, increasing HOA fees and insurance have made condos far less appealing than they once were.
Post-Pandemic Buyers Are at the Greatest Risk of Losing Money
The Redfin data is theoretical, however, as it assumes that sellers will sell in today’s market at current prices. It doesn’t factor in that sellers may choose to wait to see what other offers they might attract.
While the statistics point to a worrying trend of real estate losing value in increasing numbers, the highest percentage—16.4%—at risk are those who purchased at the top of the market in the frothy post-pandemic frenzy of bidding wars and rock-bottom rates.
Comparatively, 9% of today’s sellers who purchased their homes during the pandemic are at risk, and only 1.8% of sellers who bought before the pandemic are likely to experience a loss if they sold their homes today.
“The longer someone has owned their home, the more likely they are to come out ahead, but that’s little comfort for those who bought more recently and may be facing a loss,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said in the Redfin press release. “Not every homeowner is listing because they want to—some are listing because they have to. In those cases, it’s important to list at a realistic price for the market and be prepared to adjust depending on buyer interest.”
Market Fluidity Is Not Bad
The increasing fluidity in the market is not necessarily a bad thing for buyers who have been sidelined due to low inventory and high rates.
Khan said in the Redfin press release:
“We are seeing more opportunities for buyers to pay a little less than they would have just a year or two ago. That’s because sellers with significant equity in their homes—and therefore at no risk of selling at a loss—are more willing to be flexible on price. That’s a meaningful shift for anyone who’s been watching and waiting for prices to come down, especially first-time homebuyers.”
The Redfin data underlines an unmistakable trend in the wake of high interest rates: House prices in most areas of the country have stabilized and, in many places, especially in Sunbelt states, are now softening.
According to a The Wall Street Journal podcast, there are now half a million more sellers than buyers in the U.S., especially in the Sunbelt, where prices in Florida and Texas—including Miami, Austin, and Houston—have fallen precipitously in the wake of new construction.
“Certainly in the Southeast and Southwest, it is a buyer’s market,” the Journal’s Nicole Friedman said in the podcast. “A lot of the slowest-moving markets right now are in Florida and Texas, where there’s been a lot of new construction. So there’s more inventory that’s been built there in the last few years. And right now, there’s just a lot more homes on the market, which is causing the market to really slow down.”
For sellers not in a rush to move, the prospect of lowering their prices to attract a buyer has caused them to de-list their homes, Redfin reports.
“A lot of sellers are taking their homes off the market rather than reducing their price, with the idea of listing it again next year,” said Aditi Jain, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston, in the press release. “They’re not motivated by making money the way they would have been two or three years ago because there’s not as much money to make.”
Small Percentages Could Signal Big Losses
Redfin estimates that house prices could drop by 1% year over year by the end of 2025 due to the increased number of sellers over buyers. Those small percentages would increase the number of homes at risk of selling at a loss to 6.4%. And a 3% loss pumps the loss up to 8.1%
Risk Varies by Location
In San Francisco, nearly one in five homes currently for sale—about 19.6%—are at risk of selling for less than their purchase price, the highest share among major U.S. metro areas. Condos in San Francisco are particularly affected, with more than a third (35.6%) likely to sell at a loss.
The city’s housing market has struggled to recover fully from the pandemic-era shift to remote work, which prompted many residents to leave after a decade of tech-driven growth. However, the back-to-work mandates instilled by many companies may change that landscape.
Another tech-heavy city, Austin, follows with 13.8% of homes at risk of loss, and Oakland, California, comes next at 11%, also driven by tech residents. On the other end of the spectrum, markets like Providence, Rhode Island, and New Brunswick, New Jersey, are seeing far fewer at-risk properties—just 0.5%.
For single-family homes, Austin again leads with 13.2% at risk, followed by San Antonio (10.2%) and St. Louis (10%). East Coast metros, including Providence, New Brunswick, and Boston, show much lower risk levels.
In the condo market, San Francisco’s 35.6% loss risk stands out, followed by Portland (24.8%) and Oakland (23.2%). New Brunswick, Milwaukee, and Providence report the lowest condo loss risks, all under 1.5%.
Almost Half of Austin’s Homeowners Would Sell at a Loss
Homes purchased after July 2022 face heightened risk in Austin, where nearly 47.5% could sell at a loss. Tampa and Orlando also show elevated risk. Meanwhile, markets like Providence and Milwaukee have remained more stable.
Even homes bought earlier are not immune. Around 34% of San Francisco homes purchased during the pandemic are now at risk, as are 16.6% of those bought before July 2020. In contrast, cities like Nashville and San Diego show minimal risk among older home purchases.
Location and timing continue to play a significant role in home resale outcomes.
Final Thoughts
Buyers and sellers should pay very close attention to President Trump’s escalation of threats against Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Should Trump follow through on his pick to succeed Powell or place a “central bank gadfly,” as CNBC terms it, and undermine Powell’s position, influencing policy from within, interest rates could be on their way down.
“The Administration is now laying the groundwork—including with ‘The One, Big, Beautiful Bill’—to turbocharge economic, job, and investment growth, and it’s high time for monetary policy to complement this agenda and support America’s economic resurgence,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.
If rates fall significantly, all bets are off. House prices will rise again, and many markets will start to favor sellers once again.
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