A new survey of victims of the Palisades and Eaton fires shows most would like to return to their old neighborhoods, but they’re worried that government officials can’t make it happen soon enough.
The vast majority of burned-out homeowners surveyed said they intend to rebuild the homes destroyed in the devastating January fires — yet half say they are unwilling to wait more than three years to return.
Urgency on all fronts is paramount to a successful revival of the lost neighborhoods, Los Angeles real estate developer Clare De Briere said.
She helped oversee the survey conducted by Project Recovery, a group of public and private real estate experts who compiled a report in March on what steps can be taken to speed revival as displaced residents weigh their options to return to Pacific Palisades, Altadena, Malibu and other affected neighborhoods.
The report was compiled by professors in the real estate graduate schools at USC and UCLA, along with the Los Angeles chapter of the Urban Land Institute, a real estate nonprofit education and research institute.
For the follow-up survey, Project Recovery tracked down nearly 350 homeowners who experienced total loss or significant damage to their properties to determine their preferences for the future. Most would like to return, but are skeptical about their chances to get back in the near future and will only wait so long before settling in elsewhere.
“For every year it takes to at least start the rebuilding, 20% of the population will find another another place to go,” De Briere said. “If that statistic is right, then after five years, you’re going to have a whole new community there, so it won’t be the same.
“You won’t have the same people remembering the same parades and the same soccer teams, or the librarian who used to have story hour in the local library. All that sort of cultural memory gets, gets wiped out,” she said.
The Project Recovery report outlines a plan to get homes rebuilt within three years after the land is cleared for redevelopment, but it requires close, constant cooperation between builders and public officials overseeing construction approval and restoration of infrastructure such as water and power.
In the recent survey, the top concern of displaced homeowners “was about the lack of leadership, both on the city and the county side to get it done,” she said.
That response came as a surprise to De Briere, who expected affordability to be the chief concern, since many homeowners are indeed worried that they won’t have enough money to rebuild the way they want.
But it typically takes up to 18 months to get a building permit in Los Angeles, a process that needs to be reduced to one to two months, Project Recovery said.
That would require using an expedited process being explored by Los Angeles officials that would allow licensed architects, engineers and design professionals to “self-certify” building plans and specifications as compliant with objective building code requirements. Artificial intelligence could crosscheck their assertions far faster than human staff would be able to do it.
Other major concerns among homeowners surveyed was that rebuilding would take too long and that their communities may never be the same.
Homeowners also worry about being in a fire zone or a landslide zone, she said.
The report authors hope that the rebuilding process will bring better knowledge about managing the ways homes interact with the potentially combustible environment around them.
“If we don’t do it differently, we’re going to have the same thing happen in Beverly Hills, and Bel Air, in Silver Lake, Los Feliz and Echo Park,” De Briere said. “This is what happens when we’re living this close to nature and we’re not managing it right.”
Other findings of the survey included:
- Two-thirds of those affected by the Palisades fire say they are uncertain they will have sufficient resources to fully cover rebuilding expenses and additional living costs that are not covered by insurance. In the Eaton fire area, 82% either do not have or are uncertain they will have sufficient resources.
- In the Palisades area, 70% of homeowners may not return if it takes more than three years to rebuild. In the Eaton fire area, 63% may not return after three years.
- A “look-alike” rebuild within 110% of their prior home size is planned by 77% of people who want to return to the Palisades fire area, while 84% plan a similar rebuild in the Eaton fire area.
- On average, homeowners in both areas expect about 70% of their rebuilding costs to be covered by insurance. On the low end of anticipated insurance support, 13% from the Palisades fire area and 19% from the Eaton fire area expect that between zero and 50% of their rebuilding costs will be covered by insurance.
- Owners estimate it will cost about $800 per square foot to rebuild in the Palisades fire area and $570 per square foot in the Eaton fire area.
- Cost is the top concern for owners in the Palisades fire area with a net worth of less than $5 million, and quality is the No. 1 concern for those with a net worth of less than $1 million in the Eaton fire area.
- More than 60% of homeowners in both areas are willing to forgo customization of their new homes if financial compromises are necessary.
