Analyst has blunt words on Trump's iPhone tariff plans

President Donald Trump is doubling down on his plans to bring iPhone production to the U.S., no matter how many experts see it as misguided.

The issue has been in full focus since last week, when Trump spoke out against Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook. The president made it clear that he isn’t happy with Cook’s decision to build iPhones in India rather than in the U.S.

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When Trump addressed Apple, he stated that the company would be increasing production in the U.S. Now, he has announced plans to levy a 25% tariff against Apple for any iPhones not manufactured in the U.S.

Since before he returned to office, Trump has been highly focused on getting tech companies, including Apple, to start building more products on U.S. soil. This has garnered significant criticism from experts, who see this as highly unlikely.

President Donald Trump wants Apple CEO Tim Cook to prioritize building the iPhone in the U.S.

Image source: Ngan/Getty Images

Wall Street analyst believes Trump is wrong about Apple

For months, Trump’s tariffs against nations such as China, Canada, and Mexico have sparked significant economic uncertainty, pushing down financial markets. For many companies, the tit-for-tat negotiations between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have been particularly troubling as trade relations between the two economic superpowers hang in the balance.

Despite Apple’s plans to invest more than $500 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years, Trump clearly isn’t satisfied, as Apple still plans to shift iPhone production from China to India.

He responded with a detailed post on Truth Social, stating that every iPhone sold in the U.S. would have to be built there or Apple would have to pay a 25% tariff on each one.

Daniel Ives, a technology analyst for Wedbush Securities, responded to Trump’s claims with strong skepticism that Apple would ever manufacture and distribute the iPhone in the U.S. He went so far as to describe it as a “fairy tale” in a recent note to investors, making clear that he believes it is not feasible.

He provided further context on this topic in an X post, revealing that he believes the cost of iPhones would skyrocket significantly if they were built in the U.S., likely making Apple’s flagship product considerably less appealing to consumers.

Moving iPhone production to the U.S. “would result in an iPhone price point that is a non-starter,” he said in the post.

Ives isn’t the only tech expert to argue that Trump’s vision for Apple building iPhones on U.S. soil is a pipe dream and unlikely to ever materialize. In April 2025, experts from AppleInsider provided a detailed analysis of the many problems Apple would likely face, including component costs and a lack of labor.

Jeff Le, a Principal at 100 Mile Strategies, shared with TheStreet his take on what this development is likely to mean, both for Apple and for Trump’s agenda.

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“Apple has recognized its investments and overreliance on China has represented a significant vulnerability to its business and had announced, along with its partner Foxconn, multibillion dollar investments for deeper India manufacturing,” he states. “However, getting these investments operational immediately is unlikely and does not address the President’s urgency in getting more U.S.-made iPhones.”

Apple is facing a new challenge as Trump doubles down

As Trump’s nature is often highly unpredictable, it’s difficult to assess how he will handle this matter, particularly given the many reasons it is unlikely to happen. Le also notes, though, that “his call to tariff Apple’s iPhone 25 percent or higher is a contrast from his blanket threats, focusing on specific products.”

The stock market did not react well to Trump’s post about the 25% iPhone tariff, as evidenced by the fact that $100 billion has been erased from Apple’s market cap since Trump’s post on Friday, May 23. While shares rose slightly in after-hours trading, they remain firmly in the red for the week.

For Apple, Trump’s focus on making sure that iPhones are built in the U.S. presents a challenge. But as Ives and others have made clear, it appears highly unlikely that it will deliver on what the president wants, even if he moves forward with his tariff plans.