No one wants to see a government shutdown.
But while it's a tough situation for those impacted, shutdowns tend to end relatively quickly and markets usually take them in stride. What I briefly want to remind investors is that unlike government shutdowns, tariffs won't be going anywhere.
Remember those tariffs from the Trump administration? The same tariffs you have shaken off, especially with various economic data releases showing minimal impact so far? I get it, why bother worrying about tariff side effects when your 10 shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are moving up almost every day and second quarter GDP rises an impressive 3.8%?
But after spending much of the week on the road, I return to report that tariffs are beginning to have some real negative economic consequences. They aren't appearing in macro data yet, or even corporate earnings to a sizable degree — though I would say there's more of a groundswell of negativity building that could surprise investors heading into 2026.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
A few nuggets following my Detroit trip to interview a bunch of CEOs and politicians….
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Ford (F) CEO Jim Farley on tariff impact: “I mean, it's frustrating because we're the most American auto company, and we export the most, and yet, we have this $2 billion headwind, which prevents me from investing even more in the US,” Farley told me. Farley added that imported parts — such as wiring looms, fasteners, sensors, and brake components — are sourced from countries like China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea. Tariffs on these parts are driving up costs, including for Ford's popular F-150 truck.
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Union Pacific (UNP) CEO Jim Vena on state of economy: “So it's interesting in that the consumer from everything we see is still strong at this point. They are still out there spending, they're still out there moving. We've seen some products being a little bit less [in demand], homes are not selling at the same rate as they were before. But overall, our business is up. Our volume is strong year over year, it's up by a few percentage points. So far we have not seen the impact that some people claim that we were going to have with the economy. In specific segments [you are seeing a slowdown].”
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Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan on tariff impact: “So in Detroit, we have three assembly plants, two Jeep plants, and a GM truck plant. Ontario, as you know, is right across the river. A lot of the parts supplies come from Canada. So when you put a tariff on Canada, you're putting a tariff on cars made in Michigan. And we're starting to feel that, and I hope the president gets that sorted out.” Duggan added, “Our corporate income taxes are down because they’re off of corporate profits. The tariffs have hit them.”
