Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin could retest the $111,000–$113,000 zone, mirroring the breakout structure seen in Q2.
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The URPD metric shows 5.5% of BTC supply clustered between $110,000–$113,000.
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Fresh mid-sized holders absorbed whale distribution of 715,000 BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied nearly 6% in September, defying its bearish seasonality. After a strong weekly performance, the asset topped near a major supply zone between $115,600 and $117,300. A decisive close above $117,300 would signal a potential push toward new highs.
With the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and expectations of interest rate cuts on Wednesday, Bitcoin is undergoing a mild correction on Monday, dipping below $114,500. Analysis suggests this dip could present a favorable buying opportunity.
From a technical perspective, the critical retest zone sits between $111,000 and $113,000. This mirrors the structure observed in Q2. In June, BTC rallied from sub-$100,000 lows to $109,000, consolidating just below the $110,000 resistance.
After an initial rejection, the market absorbed liquidity near $105,000 before breaking out to fresh highs in July above $120,000.
A similar pattern appears to be developing now. If the current uptrend is to remain intact, Bitcoin should hold the $111,000–$113,000 range. A deviation below this level would weaken the bullish case, while stability here could confirm another structural breakout.
The relative strength index (RSI) also aligns with this view, having reclaimed the 50 level and now testing it as support. Historically, this setup has preceded renewed buying momentum, as witnessed in June.
Crypto analyst ShayanBTC noted that miner behavior is reinforcing the constructive outlook,
“The combination of a technical structure shift and miner accumulation provides a constructive outlook. As long as $112K holds, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to sustain momentum.”
Related: Bitcoin daily dip hits 2% as ‘classic’ BTC price action precedes FOMC
“Fresh” Bitcoin investors have arrived, says analyst
One reason the $113,000 zone could be a technical support is the URPD (UTXO realized price distribution) metric, which maps the distribution of Bitcoin supply by purchase price. According to recent data, a significant 5.5% of BTC supply has shifted at $110,000–$113,000, highlighting this band as one of the most actively accumulated ranges in recent weeks.
In other words, a substantial base of holders has positioned themselves here, suggesting conviction that the level represents long-term value.
This accumulation trend is further reinforced by the behavior of wallet cohorts. Since July 2024, Shark wallets (holding 100–1,000 BTC) have added nearly 1 million BTC, increasing their collective balance to 5.939 million BTC. The steady rise signals the entry of fresh mid-sized players building exposure.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr added that at the same time, distribution from larger cohorts has been notable. Whale wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC) have reduced holdings by 324,000 BTC since March 2024, while Humpbacks (≥10,000 BTC) cut their balance by 391,000 BTC.
In total, roughly 715,000 BTC have been released into the market since last year’s peaks.
Crucially, this supply has been absorbed, largely by smaller, newer participants, a structural shift that underlines why the $113,000 level could mark one of the last meaningful “discounts” before renewed upside.
Related: Traders say Bitcoin’s ‘bullish’ weekly close sets path for $120K BTC price
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
