00:00 Julie
you know, that these things can end badly, but they can also last a really long time, right?
00:05 Tom
Yeah, of course. Yeah.
00:05 Julie
So, what would be sort of your contenders to pop this bubble, if it is a bubble, or to bring, you know, take some froth out?
00:13 Tom
So, you know, the the the great thing about trading and one of the things, one of the reasons I've probably been around for so long is that the answer to that question, if any of us had a clue,
00:26 Tom
um, it it you know, we would have been long gone. Yeah. Um meaning that, you know, because you could have just made so much money. I think
00:33 Tom
I think that's it's never what you think it could be. Um, in this case, I kind of feel like it may be when the Fed actually starts to lower rates,
00:41 Tom
that that may be kind of the nail in the coffin for the markets, but I don't know.
00:46 Tom
I mean, we haven't seen any selling and and usually it's something that we don't expect.
00:52 Julie
Yeah.
00:53 Tom
So I don't know the answer.
00:54 Julie
Well, and there's been a lot of things this year that we haven't expected and the market has just kept going up on the on the flip side of things, right?
01:03 Tom
Yeah, the market's been, I mean, except for April, uh 2025 has been relentless.
01:08 Tom
Um April was a pretty good scare and the whole tariff, you know, stuff was a pretty good scare, but other than that, this market has been relentless. It's pretty much been relentless for the last two years.
01:17 Tom
And so, you know, you've got virtually every index, you know, hovering around, I I don't know if this is a new high in the S&P's today. Yeah. Not it's it's super close. And, you know,
01:26 Tom
you've got everything at record highs. It's it's hard to you know, it it's hard to be anything but, hey, I'm not going to do anything other than buy them until they show me something different.
01:34 Julie
Well, and Tom, is there anything in this market that does make more sense to you, that is more rational or even attractive?
01:43 Tom
Until the last week, I really thought the bond market, both the bonds and the notes were super attractive because I thought that they were um cheap relative, very cheap relative to stocks.
01:52 Tom
Now when I look at the stock market, I don't think there's even a single commodity out there that looks cheap to me.
02:00 Tom
So not only is the stock market expensive, um the commodity markets are expensive and and I don't even think the bond market's cheap anymore. So
02:08 Tom
unfortunately, I don't think there's a I don't think there's a boat safe haven right now, a risk safe haven, a risk on safe haven.
02:16 Tom
Um, maybe I'm maybe I mean, maybe I'm wrong, I'm wrong a lot, but uh there's not a marketplace right now where I think, oh, hey, this is cheap. If we get a little bit of a sell off, I think you will have some
02:24 Tom
I think you will get some things that get overdone relatively quickly. Just because of the way today, everybody piles on in one direction or the other.
02:33 Julie
Yeah, definitely a uh feeling of like going to one side of the boat and then going to the other side of the boat all Yeah.
02:38 Tom
Yeah, there's nobody nobody sits in the middle anymore, Julie. Everybody's always all the they're either all in or all out.
02:42 Julie
Yeah. No fulcrum whatsoever. Tom, thank you so much. It's always great to talk to you.
