Citing a shifting economic situation in the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is ready to adjust interest rates during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
Powell indicated that the Fed’s dual mandate goal is essentially in balance, saying the labor market remains close to maximum employment and that inflation has eased from post-pandemic highs, although it remain elevated.
However, the Fed head also noted that “the balance of risks appears to be shifting,” with significant uncertainty in the economy as a result of higher tariffs, tighter immigration and a slowdown in the pace of growth in the labor market.
“Over the longer run, changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity,” Powell added in his Friday (August 22) address.
The biggest challenge for the Fed is maintaining its dual mandate of ensuring too much slack doesn’t enter the labor market, which Powell said could happen quickly, while also attempting to ease inflation to the target 2 percent.
In an email to the Investing News Network (INN), Blerina Uruci, chief economist with T. Rowe Price, suggested that the unemployment rate, rather than the employment rate, may be a key indicator that dictates the Fed's direction.
“A material slowing in employment growth may not be a signal that the economy is entering a downturn, but a symptom of structural shifts in the economy. For this reason, Powell and others in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have pointed to the unemployment rate as a more useful indicator of the health of the labor market,” she said.
Although tariffs are likely to take some months to work their way through the economy, with Powell suggesting there is still high uncertainty, he also indicated that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
His remarks are in line with analysts' expectations of a 25 basis point cut to the benchmark rate in September.
“The FOMC will vote to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and cut 50 basis points in total this year. With regards to the next meeting, we could get a hawkish outcome (no cut) if inflation surprises significantly to the upside and or the labor market rebounds sharply,” Uruci commented to INN. She also suggested that the Fed could make a more dovish 50 basis point cut if August payroll growth slows below 50,000 per month and unemployment increases.
In 2024, the Fed made three cuts: a 50 basis point cut in September, followed by two 25 basis point cuts in October and November. So far, it has not made reductions in 2025; however, it faced dissent from two committee members at its July meeting, the first time more than one member has voted against the committee since December 1993.
The gold price jumped following Powell’s remarks on Friday, gaining nearly 1 percent in morning trading, reaching US$3,370 per ounce by 1:00 p.m. EDT. Silver rose more than 2 percent to hit US$38.94 per ounce.
Equity markets were also in positive territory during morning trading.
The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) climbed 1.49 percent to 6,465 points, and the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) rose 1.48 percent to 23,485 points. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) surged 2 percent to trade in record territory at 45,687 points.
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Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.
