Is a BlackRock XRP ETF in the works? Here’s why analysts think so

Industry experts believe that BlackRock could soon file to launch an XRP exchange-traded fund, following the latest resolution in Ripple’s legal battle with the U.S. SEC.

In a X post on Aug. 8, former ETF Store president Nate Geraci suggested that BlackRock may have been waiting for legal clarity before submitting an iShares XRP (XRP) ETF application.

“I think BlackRock was waiting to see this before filing for iShares XRP ETF,” he said, referring to the recent joint court filing in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to formally dissolve the Ripple-SEC case.

While Geraci admitted that he could be wrong, he argued that there is no reason for the world’s largest asset manager to limit its crypto ETF lineup to just Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

BlackRock’s BTC and ETH funds, IBIT and ETHA, have both recorded strong success since launch, with IBIT becoming one of the firm’s best-performing ETFs. That track record adds weight to the idea that the asset manager could be eyeing more crypto funds, though it’s all speculation for now. 

The latest dissolution formally closes the Ripple v. SEC battle, bringing an end to the years-long legal fight over whether XRP is a security. While the court had already ruled in 2023 that XRP is not a security in secondary markets, the case remained open due to pending civil penalties.

Now, with the case officially over, speculation is back on the table over potential XRP ETFs. 

Is an XRP ETF next after BTC and ETH?

So far, seven asset managers, including Grayscale, 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise, have filed with the SEC to launch an XRP ETF. All potential issuers submitted their applications earlier this year, aiming to list their respective products.

While the SEC recently delayed its review process on some of the applications, industry expectations for approval are high. Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have pegged the approval odds at 95%, predicting that regulatory greenlight and subsequent launches will likely come in the second half of the year.

On Polymarket, bettors see an 88% chance of an XRP ETF launching before year-end. The odds are up 16% in the last 24 hours, likely driven by the legal resolution.

Meanwhile, XRP is up 10.7% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume jumping 197% to $11.9 billion. Now trading at $3.31, the price rebound marks a sharp recovery from several days of underperformance, reigniting bullish momentum around the token.