00:00 Speaker A
Stocks closing the day mixed as the Fed holds rates steady and Yahoo Finance's Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways. Jared.
00:08 Jared
Thank you, Josh. We do have to talk about the Fed first and the Fed was moving markets today and it wasn't just the Fed. I mean, we got earnings after the close. Meta Microsoft. I'm going to try to go through some of the moves because this was just a head spinning day. S&P 500 down a whopping 12 basis points. That was not the big move I was talking about. But let's go to the US dollar index which was up 1%. It was just a few days ago it was also up 1%, a little bit more than that. Very unusual to see two big moves like that in the Dixie in one week. And I'll show you what's happening on the year-to-date chart. It has been heading down precipitously, but now it has broken to the upside. And I'm going to show you a chart that I showed just a few days ago. This is US dollar index seasonality. We are right in the sweet spot. Here's where we are. White line is right here. Green line is what my map is. And guess what, that green line turns up significantly here. Why why do I say this? Because the street is positioned bearish. They are their sentiment is bearish. And so this just means that the dollar could have a long ways to go up. Having said all that, I just got to show you what's going on in the futures market real quickly here. This isn't even a header, but it's just mind-blowing. Copper down 18%. Now that was on some tariff news and that came about the same time as the Fed announcement, but it was not because of the Fed in any way. It was all tariffs but down 18%. Each big point here is worth $25,000. That doesn't even cover cover the margins. So the margin calls tomorrow are just going to be astronomical. Not only that, gold did move down on the Fed announcement and during the pile presser. It was actually down 1.72% close to close and that was the worst Fed day reaction in gold since 2013. So you put it all together, we just had some mind-blowing moves today.
02:56 Speaker A
Switching gears. On the show today, we also talked to the CEO of a company that IPOed, made its public market debut. Ambic, what is going on in that space? What do you see?
03:10 Jared
Yeah, I had the chance to sit down with Brianna Samuels. She is a venture capitalist and she also has her own clothing line. And this was on Stocks and Translation. Episode is dropping tomorrow, Thursday, that July 31st. Anyway, we talked about the IPO market and how there are portfolios that these venture capitalists have. They only need a few to hit a home run to make the thing worthwhile. Here's what she had to say about it.
03:56 Speaker B
Especially in venture capital, you're playing a rule of numbers and power law. When venture capitalists think of their fund strategy, they know that they're going to make maybe 20 investments and they only need a handful of those one to four to make it big, hit that unicorn status to return the entire portfolio of the funds. So they know there's going to be several investments that get written to zero.
04:41 Jared
So power laws, law of large numbers, however you want to play it, they just need a few home runs. Reminds me of a lot of other things in life.
04:51 Speaker A
So true, Jared, so true. Um so the Fed, Yes. Meg 7 earnings, what else was in the news today?
05:02 Jared
Stable coins and this went under the radar because this has to do with the Genius Act. The Treasury announced its refunding needs for the next quarter and it is going to buy back a bunch of long-end bills. And that's not the stable coin part, but that is relevant. So they're going to buy back a lot of these these longer term bonds actually, not bills. And that's going to provide liquidity to the market. It actually helps out the Fed with their quantitative tightening because that's also removing liquidity from the system. So the stable coin part is interesting because as these things become developed and the Treasury borrowing action committee was making a presentation of the Treasury on this, they estimate there's going to be up to a $2 trillion dollar demand for Treasury bills. And this is up from about 200 million, 300 million. Anyway, at least a trillion and a half excess capacity for T bills. What does that mean? That means Congress can borrow an extra trillion and a half. And what does Congress like to do? They like to spend a lot of money. So this is going to enable a lot more spending. Uh it's also going to stabilize the market for Treasury bills in a few different ways. I find it really fascinating. I'm going to be jumping into the details and talking about this in future weeks.
07:07 Speaker A
All right, thank you, Jared. Appreciate it, buddy.
