The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.45%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.17%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.21%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.15%.
Stock indexes today are mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 2-week high. Stocks found support today on some positive trade news that has boosted market sentiment. President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan late Tuesday, which will impose 15% tariffs on imports from Japanese, lower than the previously announced 25% rate set to take effect on August 1. The deal also creates a $550 billion fund for Japan to invest in the US. Japan also agreed to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, increase its purchases of US rice by 75%, and buy $8 billion in other agricultural products, while raising its defense spending with American firms to $17 billion annually, from $14 billion.
However, the Nasdaq 100 index is under pressure today due to weakness in auto-related chip makers, with Texas Instruments down more than -10% after company executives on an earnings call said there isn’t a “true broad recovery” in the automotive sector as automotive customers who ship into the US are cautious due to tariffs.
US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.8% in the week ended July 18, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +3.4% and the refinancing sub-index down -2.6%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose +2 bp to 6.84% from 6.82% in the prior week.
Recent trade news has put some downward pressure on stocks. Last Wednesday, President Trump announced that he intends to send a tariff letter to more than 150 countries, notifying them that their tariff rates could be 10% or 15%, effective August 1. Also, President Trump recently announced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. In addition, Mr. Trump said that a 35% tariff on some Canadian products would take effect on August 1, up from the current 25%.
The markets this week will focus on any tariff news along with the announcement of any new trade deals. Later today, Jun existing home sales are expected to fall -0.7% m/m to 4.00 million. After today's close, Alphabet and Tesla will release their quarterly earnings. On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to climb by +5,000 to 226,000. Also, the July S&P US manufacturing PMI is expected to slip -0.2 to 52.7. Finally, on Thursday, June new home sales are expected to climb +4.3% m/m to 650,000. On Friday, June capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts are expected to increase by +0.2% m/m.
