00:00 Speaker A
I've had a weekend of a, a pretty confusing messaging from the Trump administration. There's a lot of different messages here, but I do think you're right to zoom in on this August 1st deadline because a lot of market observers are taking that as a sign that you can look past a lot of this week. We're going to learn a ton about Trump's admin, Trump's trade approach this week. We already have learned a lot about with his posts overnight about bricks or new to focus on that, that you mentioned at the top of the show. But and and Trump has announced that letters are going to be going out at 12 at 12 noon today throughout the week with a combination of letters and deals where he's going to dictate rates that will, that will be important, but the most important detail, I think for markets at the moment is this August 1st deadline suggesting that traders are going to look past this a little bit because we may we may get new rates today, but we're going to, they're not going to be going into effect. And so no one knows for certain exactly what's going to be going into into effect. This comes on multiple fronts here. There's, there's a block of smaller trading nation, of nations that are expected to just get a letter that dictates these tariffs. And we get larger nations that are in the process of ongoing negotiations and they may get dictated as well, but they also may get kind of framework deals announced. A third option here is just to add even more uncertainty as one of Trump's advisors, Stephen, put it over the weekend. Countries could get their dates quote rolled. So there could be a whole lot of different ways that this goes, but with the bottom line that there's not going to expected to be a huge number of tariff changes this week, at least in terms of the actual rates.
03:02 Speaker B
So all of this then leads to the complications, Jen, for economists and for the Fed trying to figure out when and how the tariff impact is going to be felt. So, how are you thinking about, what are you seeing this morning around that?
03:36 Jen
Yeah, Julie. If you were looking for more certainty, you're still looking for it, right? Uh, that tax bill signed on July 4th offers more clarity over the fiscal side and could offer and help boost growth. But that rate hasn't been the source of uncertainty. It's really been the tariff rates. What is the effective tariff rate? How quickly could we see that pass on to the consumer and what are the inflation expectations around that? And the president said that most tariff rates are going to be set by this Wednesday, July 9th, and will go into effect August 1st. Now, of course, the devil is going to be in the details, but it looks like we could see some more clarity on what the tariff rates could be. Um, they could range. It sounds like anywhere from 10% all the way up to 70%. And you know, it's going to depend on how high of a tariff rate we're going to see on a major trading partner, which would have a greater economic impact versus a higher tariff rate on a smaller trading partner. But the bottom line here, Julie, is that it looks like we could see a higher effective tariff rate and it's going to take longer for all of this to actually kick in if it doesn't get implemented until August 1st. So that means that the Fed is going to be holding rates higher for longer, certainly through the summer. Uh, that is going to deepen the divide between the Fed and President Trump. Remember, it's about how broad these tariffs are and and how high those tariff rates are.
