Some headlines fade, but the TikTok ban never does.
Every new TikTok ban update or fresh TikTok ban date has become a litmus test for how far restrictions on TikTok in the U.S. can go.
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President Donald Trump’s push to squeeze ByteDance into a corner has had its hidden winners, though.
Meta Platforms (META) and Google (GOOGL) have effectively built new moats, with TikTok still fighting to stay alive.
What if the next twist doesn’t go their way, though? From the looks of it, this new development could have Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg steaming.
TikTok’s wild ride from viral app to Capitol Hill fight
TikTok’s rise in the U.S. has been nothing short of extraordinary.
Following ByteDance’s merger with Musical.ly in 2018, the short-video app grew like wildfire, successfully tapping into Gen Z’s appetite for bite-sized content and viral trends.
A few years later, in mid-2021, TikTok had hit a jaw-dropping 1 billion global monthly active users, with the U.S. accounting for a major piece of that pie.
By 2025, the platform boasts close to 118 million U.S. monthly active users — roughly 33% of Americans — pushing ahead of all major legacy social platforms.
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Reports suggest that the average American spends 52 minutes a day scrolling TikTok, down just 6.9% year over year, but way ahead of competition such as Instagram or Facebook.
That deep engagement has made TikTok prime real estate for brands banking on performance ads driving direct sales.
Advertisers aren’t missing out.
U.S. ad spending on TikTok is expected to jump 20% this year to $14.8 billion, up from $11.2 billion last year.
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Nevertheless, that momentum ran headfirst into Washington’s national security worries. Since 2020, the U.S. has looked to push out TikTok over fears that its data access poses risks. President Trump first moved to ban the app, but the legal tussle kept it alive. President Biden scrapped that order in 2021 but launched a significantly wider review of foreign-owned apps.
In April 2024, Congress passed PAFACA, which compelled ByteDance to sell its U.S.-based TikTok operations by January 19, 2025, or shut down completely.
Since then, President Trump’s return paused the hammer, giving ByteDance time with extensions through June and September 17 as talks continue to drag on.
TikTok’s next reboot could cost Google and Meta billions
ByteDance is racing against time to keep TikTok alive in the U.S., but its next move could send shockwaves through two of the biggest ad giants.
In responding to that pressure, ByteDance is putting out a brand-new “clean-room” version of TikTok for the U.S. market.
This rebuilt edition of the app is set to hit U.S. app stores on September 5, roughly 12 days before President Trump’s September 17 deadline for its parent to sell off TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a complete ban.
The stakes are sky-high, but regulators have given users a grace period in softening the blow, which means the app will stay online through March 2026.
That makes this rollout a potentially shape-shifting event for rivals like Meta and Google. Meta, in particular, has feasted on TikTok’s turmoil.
Billions in U.S. ad spend is up for grabs, and a Business Insider report pegged Meta’s potential haul at up to $3.4 billion if TikTok fades away.
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Naturally, Meta will lean hard on Instagram Reels, which, according to an eMarketer report, make up more than half of Meta’s U.S. ad sales, up 48% last year.
Hence, if TikTok loses even 50% of its U.S. sales, Meta could pocket something in the ballpark of $6–9 billion.
Google is also in line to win big.
With advertisers looking to hedge their bets, YouTube Shorts continues to see more uploads and ad impressions, moving the needle for its CPMs.
Morgan Stanley estimates that if Shorts scoops up just 10% of TikTok’s user hours, it could add $1–3 billion to Google’s video ad pot this year.
Some analysts believe that Meta and Alphabet could rake in 90% of TikTok’s displaced ad revenue.
However, the new TikTok app could slam that door shut.
If it's a U.S.-only version that flips the script on the TikTok ban, those ad dollars won’t be migrating.
Hence, TikTok’s next pivot could be a game-changer, whether Google and Meta keep winning or give some of those billions in quick fashion.
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