Holiday Trading, Trade Negotiations and Other Key Things to Watch this Week

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Markets enter the final week of June with the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) maintaining resilience near recent highs despite ongoing market volatility. With the S&P 500 having rallied more than 25% off its April low, complacency may be an investor's biggest enemy as traders prepare for a holiday-shortened week featuring critical employment data, manufacturing updates, and Tesla's closely watched quarterly delivery numbers. Trade negotiations remain in focus following last week's positive U.S.-China trade developments touted by Trump, while the White House downplayed the significance of the July 9 tariff deadline. Friday's halt to Canada trade negotiations was quickly shrugged off by investors, suggesting markets have become increasingly adept at parsing trade rhetoric from substantive policy changes. The week brings a packed economic calendar culminating with Friday's jobs report, while markets will close early Thursday for Independence Day celebrations.

Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.

Manufacturing Momentum Check

Monday's Chicago PMI at 9:45am kicks off a comprehensive assessment of manufacturing sector health, followed by Tuesday's dual manufacturing readings with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10am. The ISM report typically carries more market weight due to its broader survey base and longer track record as a leading economic indicator. Manufacturing has faced headwinds throughout 2025, with several months showing contraction territory below the critical 50 level. Any signs of expansion could boost cyclical sectors and industrial stocks, while continued weakness might raise concerns about broader economic resilience heading into the second half of the year. The ISM Manufacturing Prices component will be particularly scrutinized for inflation signals, especially given the Fed's ongoing focus on price stability. Companies in the materials, industrials, and machinery sectors could see heightened volatility based on these readings.

Tesla Delivery Drama

Wednesday brings Tesla's (TSLA) highly anticipated Q2 delivery numbers, a critical test for the electric vehicle leader following a 13% year-over-year drop in first-quarter deliveries that disappointed investors. Wall Street will be closely watching whether Tesla can demonstrate improved demand momentum amid increasing competition in the EV space and ongoing market share pressures. The delivery figures will provide crucial insights into consumer appetite for Tesla's vehicles and the effectiveness of recent price adjustments and promotional strategies. Beyond the headline numbers, investors will analyze geographic performance, model mix, and any commentary about production challenges or supply chain issues. The results could significantly impact not only Tesla's stock price but also broader sentiment toward the EV sector and related supply chain companies including battery manufacturers, charging infrastructure providers, and automotive technology firms.

Powell's Policy Perspective

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech at 9:30am Tuesday represents the week's most significant monetary policy event, coming as markets continue to parse the central bank's outlook for interest rates through the remainder of 2025. The central bank held rates steady at recent meetings while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation progress. Powell's remarks will be closely analyzed for any evolution in the Fed's thinking about the timing and pace of potential rate adjustments, particularly given mixed economic signals and ongoing labor market strength. His commentary could influence rate-sensitive sectors including technology, utilities, and financials, while providing guidance on the Fed's assessment of current economic conditions. The speech timing, coinciding with manufacturing data releases, creates potential for amplified market reactions if Powell's observations align with or contradict incoming economic indicators.

Employment Reality Check

Friday's jobs report at 8:30am represents the week's most consequential data release, delivering the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and critically important average hourly earnings figures. Wednesday's ADP employment report at 8:15am will provide an early preview of private sector hiring trends, while Thursday's initial jobless claims offer the latest snapshot of labor market health. The employment picture has remained robust throughout 2025, supporting consumer spending and economic growth while complicating the Fed's inflation fight. Any significant deviation from recent strength could alter expectations for monetary policy and impact sectors ranging from consumer discretionary to housing-related companies. Average hourly earnings data will be particularly scrutinized as a key inflation indicator, with wage growth remaining a central concern for policymakers. The convergence of JOLTS job openings data Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, and the comprehensive jobs report Friday creates potential for sustained volatility in employment-sensitive sectors.

Holiday Trading Dynamics

Thursday's early market close at 1pm for Independence Day, followed by Friday's holiday, creates a unique trading environment that could amplify volatility around key data releases. Historical patterns suggest holiday-shortened weeks often experience reduced liquidity, potentially leading to more pronounced price movements on lower volume. The concentration of critical economic data – including manufacturing readings, Tesla deliveries, and the jobs report – within the shortened trading schedule could create compressed reaction times and heightened market sensitivity. Traders should prepare for potentially wider spreads and more volatile price action, particularly around Wednesday's data releases and Friday morning's jobs report. The holiday timing may also influence institutional positioning decisions and options expirations, adding another layer of complexity to an already data-heavy week.

Best of luck this week and don't forget to check out my daily options article.

On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com