Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) 75% surge from its November lows isn’t just another speculative spike. According to Deutsche Bank, the rally is rooted in five converging trends that could push crypto into a more mature, mainstream phase.
First, crypto is gaining real political momentum in Washington. The House of Representatives kicked off its “Crypto Week” on Monday, with three key bills set for a vote: the CLARITY Act, a market framework bill; the GENIUS Act, tied to stablecoin regulation; and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which bans the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency directly to individuals.
The Trump administration has taken a notably pro-crypto stance, creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile and a “crypto task force” at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Globally, Europe’s MiCA legislation is now live, and the UK and China are exploring stablecoin frameworks. The shift is helping legitimize crypto in the eyes of institutions and regulators alike.
“Bitcoin will be around $125,000,” Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge, said on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. “I wouldn't necessarily get out, but I would certainly be looking at holding it.”
Read more: How would Trump's strategic bitcoin reserve work?
Second, the SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 was a turning point. Since then, investors have poured over $50 billion into bitcoin ETFs, per Deutsche Bank.
ETF inflows have bolstered bitcoin’s liquidity and brought price stability. The introduction of regulated options trading and April 2024’s halving event, which slashed bitcoin issuance by 50%, have further tightened supply, supporting upward price pressure.
Moreover, adoption is growing. Some 17% of US retail investors hold bitcoin as of June, according to Deutsche Bank. On the corporate side, 31% of all circulating bitcoin is held by company treasuries. Ripple (RLUSD-USD) and Circle (CRCL) reportedly applied for national bank charters, aiming to expand into traditional US banking.
It’s not just crypto bulls like MicroStrategy (MSTR) anymore. Consumer companies like meat purveyor Beck & Bulow and Japan’s Metaplanet are diversifying their balance sheets with bitcoin to hedge against inflation or dollar risk.
Macroeconomic headwinds are also adding fuel to the rally. The dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) is down nearly 10% year to date, and fresh US deficit projections, tied to new tax legislation, have pushed investors toward alternative stores of value like bitcoin and gold (GC=F).
